GERMANY: Merz: 'Germany Must Live Up To Leading Military Role'
Apr-30 10:29
Reuters reports comments from Chancellor Friedrich Merz regarding regional security and the situatio...
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STIR: Consolidation of Large Fed Rate Rally Over Past Two Sessions
Mar-31 10:28
- US rates consolidate yesterday’s sizeable rally, with a reluctance to react to WSJ reporting overnight that President Trump is willing to end operations in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
- There has been very little net movement since Fed Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday implied that FOMC leadership retains a slight easing bias. It's been almost 2 weeks since the last FOMC decision/presser - thus with 2 weeks more of the Middle East war having passed, if Powell felt like there was a need to tweak communications in a more hawkish direction to help dampen/anchor inflation expectations, he would have done so.
- FF cumulative moves from 3.64% effective: +1bp Apr, -0.5bp Jun, -1bp Jul, 0bp Sep, -1bp Oct and -3bp Dec.
- SOFR futures are unchanged out to mid-2027 contracts before seeing 2.5 tick increases out in late 2028.
- The SOFR terminal implied yield of 3.415% (Z7, -1bp) compares with the March range of 3.075% (Mar 2) -3.55% (Mar 26) for closes.
- Today sees a heavier data docket with notable second tier releases starting with the MNI Chicago PMI before Conf. Board consumer confidence/labor differential and JOLTS both at 1000ET.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: House Prices, JOLTS, Fed Speakers
Mar-31 10:27
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 03/31 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.1%, 0.1%)
- 03/31 0900 S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA (0.47%, 0.35%), YoY (1.38%, 1.38%)
- 03/31 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (57.7, 55.0)
- 03/31 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (91.2, 87.9)
- 03/31 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (6.946M, 6.890M), Openings Rate (4.2%, --)
- 03/31 1000 JOLTS Quits Level (3.137M, 3.120M), Quits Rate (2.0%, 2.0%)
- 03/31 1000 JOLTS Layoffs Level (1.631M,1.668M), Layoffs Rate (1.0%, 1.1%)
- 03/31 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (-3.2, -4.6)
- 03/31 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
- 03/31 1200 Chicago Fed Goolsbee opening remarks, Eco Mobility Project
- 03/31 1310 KC Fed Schmid on monetary policy/economic outlook
- 03/31 1500 Fed Gov Barr moderated discussion on stablecoin regulation
- 03/31 1710 Fed VC Bowman moderated discussion on small business
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gains In EUROSTOXX50 Futures Appear Corrective
Mar-31 10:06
- In the equity space, a bear trend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 6316.61 next, a 3.236 projection of the Feb 11 - 17 - 25 price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 6669.50, the 20-day EMA. A correction would allow an oversold condition to unwind.The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that the trend is oversold and a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Key pivot resistance is seen at 5739.00, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of the downtrend would open 5277.64 next, a 1.382 projection of the Mar 5 - 9 - 10 price swing.
