EU REAL ESTATE: Merlin Properties: New 8yr Final ms+105

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday boosted U.S. and China growth forecasts, citing a de-escalation of tariffs and increased fiscal stimulus while warning global growth is at risk because of trade disputes. 

• America's growth estimate moved up a tenth to 1.9% this year and 0.3pp next year to 2% in the July World Economic Outlook update from the last projection in April. Donald Trump's recent fiscal package will raise annual growth 0.5pp on average through 2030, though the report warned investors may react badly to an unsustainable fiscal path.
• The agreement temporarily lowering US tariffs on China and fiscal stimulus boosts growth in the world's second-largest economy this year by 0.8pp to 4.8%. Growth in 2026 in the IMF projection is also revised up 0.2pp to 4.2%, reflecting lower effective tariffs.
• Global prospects have improved slightly in recent months in spite of the U.S.-led trade war and the IMF said risks remain tilted to the downside. "The global economy has continued to hold steady, but the composition of activity points to distortions from tariffs, rather than underlying robustness," the IMF report said. 

• MNI:US MAY FHFA HPI SA -0.2% V -0.3% APR; +2.8% Y/Y

Headlines from Commerce Secretary and Trade Hawk Lutnick:

• "*LUTNICK: TRUMP WILL ANNOUNCE PHARMA POLICY IN NEXT TWO WEEKS" Bloomberg
• "*LUTNICK: WILL BE A 'MASSIVE' TARIFF IF PHARMA NOT MADE IN US" Bloomberg

A reminder that back at the start of July, Trump threatened to impose up to 200% tariffs on pharma products "very soon". However, the administration would "give people about a year, year and a half" to incentivize production relocation into the US

No immediate reaction in USDCHF nor the 10-year IRISH/Bund spread to these headlines - Ireland and Switzerland are very exposed to the pharma industry, and consequently tariff policy.