TARIFFS: Meloni To Probe Trump For Solution To Tariff Standoff
Apr-16 16:41
On Thursday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will become the first European leader to sit for a face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump since he imposed his 'Liberation Day' tariffs. On Friday, Meloni will return to Rome to host Vice President JD Vance for a state visit.
- Politico notes: “Meloni’s personal engagement with Trump has set nerves jangling in other EU capitals. But as the bloc faces up to a potentially ruinous trade war, even her wariest counterparts are coming round to the idea that she may be the only European leader he is willing to listen to.”
- An Italian official said: “Having Trump’s ear is an asset for the entire European Union,” highlighting Meloni’s “ideological affinities with the world of American conservative right-wing politics.”
- However, as Semafor notes that Italy, “is a laggard on the key issues Trump values: Italy spends far below the European average on defense, and has a hefty trade surplus with the US.”
- Bloomberg writes: “The question for Meloni to ask is: What, if anything, does the US really want? Any hint of an answer would be of huge value to a Europe that remains stumped," noting that European Union Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic left a meeting with his US counterparts this week still waiting for the US to “define its position.”
Figure 1: EU Trade Balance In Goods With the United States
Source: Politico
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US DATA: GDPNow Seen At -2.1% For Q1, Gold-Adjusted Estimate Mar 26
Mar-17 16:37
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for real GDP growth in Q1 was revised up to -2.1% from -2.4% in its Mar 6 update, although it marked a downgrade from the -1.6% tracked inter-released after the payrolls report of Mar 7 (as noted in the LinkedIn post from Atlanta Fed’s Higgins mentioned earlier).
- Today’s retail sales report, which as we noted showed signs of weak discretionary spending, has offset the inter-release upside seen post-payrolls for consumer spending. Compared to the -2.4% in the last 'full' release, the upward revision has come from a larger positive contributino from non-resi investment growth and changes in inventories.
- The LinkedIn post had also showed a gold-adjusted figure of +0.4% vs the -1.6% in that inter-release update. However: “Due to FOMC blackout policy, today’s post does not include an update of the version of the model described here that adjusts the standard GDPNow model forecast for foreign trade in gold. That adjusted model will again be updated after our first scheduled post-blackout update on March 26.”
US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Energy & Estate Management Leading
Mar-17 16:37
- Major U.S. stock indexes are trading mixed, the SPX Eminis near steady while the DJIA outperforms modestly weaker Nasdaq at midday. Currently, the DJIA trades up 188.34 points (0.45%) at 41678.97, S&P E-Minis up 6.75 points (0.12%) at 5699.5, Nasdaq down 81.7 points (-0.5%) at 17673.26.
- Energy and Real Estate sectors outperformed in the first half, oil and gas stocks leading gainers as crude prices rebounded (WTI +.41 at 67.59): Marathon Petroleum +2.61%, Targa Resources +2.45%, APA +2.37% and Valero Energy +2.13%.
- Investment trusts and management shares buoyed the Real Estate sector: BXP Inc +5.24%, Simon Property Group +2.55% and Iron Mountain +2.02%.
- On the flipside, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors underperformed in the first half, Tesla -6.44%, Ulta Beauty -2.25%, Garmin Ltd -1.85% and Deckers Outdoor -1.60% led laggers in the Discretionary sector.
- Despite strong gains by Intel +7.88% and Enphase +6.47%, the Tech sector underperformed as a whole with Super Micro Computer-1.92%, NVIDIA -1.71%, Broadcom -1.52% and Apple -1.36%.
AUD: Bullish Break of 100-dma Would be First in Over 6 Months
Mar-17 16:33
Despite the greenback recovering off lows against most others in G10, AUD/USD is still well bid - pushing the pair to a new daily high through the London close. This narrows the gap with 0.6409 - the bull trigger.
- Firmer commodity prices have given the currency the last leg higher, as Trump's more aggressive language on Iran underpinned the oil rally. Another factor making today's break higher in AUD/USD notable is the rally (and likely close) above the 100-dma at 0.6347. This level held well and contained price action back in late February as well as during the sell-off in November of 2024 - a confirmed break and close above this week would be the first since over six months.
