EM CEEMEA CREDIT: mBank: Q325 Results: Pressure on NIM continues
Oct-30 15:10
(MBKPW; -/BBB+/BBB) * NII -1.4% q/q at PLN2.46bn, broadly in line with expectations. NIM continued ...
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SOFR OPTIONS: Dec'25 SOFR Call Buy, Strangle Sale Update
Sep-30 14:55
- +15,000 SFRZ5 96.75 calls, 1.75 ref 96.31
- -12,000 SFRX5 96.12/96.62 strangles, 1.75-2.0
BOE: Breeden due to speak on monetary policy at 16:30BST
Sep-30 14:48
- Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden rarely speaks on monetary policy but her speech scheduled for today at 16:30BST at Cardiff University is provisionally entitled “The Monetary Policy Outlook”.
- This will certainly be a key speech. She sounded slightly more dovish than Governor Bailey in our view following her testimony ahead of the TSC on 3 June but hasn’t really spoken on monetary policy since.
- Her tone is likely to be pivotal for markets, particularly if she strikes a dovish tone given current market pricing.
- We think that markets are underpricing the probability of a Q4 cut with less than 1bp priced for November and less than 5bp cumulatively priced for December.
- Note that yesterday, Deputy Governor Ramsden did not rule out voting for a cut in November but was generally considered the most dovish member to not dissent at the September MPC meeting. In order to reach the five members needed for a cut we would need the two September dissenters (Dhingra and Taylor) and then likely all of Ramsden, Breeden and Bailey. That leaves the four members who hawkishly dissented in August continuing to favour a skip.
SOFR OPTIONS: Latest Vol Sales
Sep-30 14:43
- -5,000 SFRX5 96.12/96.62 strangles, 1.75
- -3,000 SFRV5 96.31 straddles, 6.25-6.0
- -12,900 0QV5 96.93 calls 4.5 ref 96.905
