CHILE: May CPI Inflation Expected At 1300BST
Jun-06 11:12
- May CPI inflation figures at 1300BST(0800ET) will be eagerly awaited following the BCCH’s more dovish tone in recent weeks, which has sparked speculation that the central bank could resume its easing cycle imminently. The headline rate is expected to remain at 4.5% y/y, according to consensus forecasts, although softening core inflation could increase the odds of a BCCh cut this month.
- May CPI YoY Chained, est. 4.5%, prior 4.5%
- May CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- Scotiabank sees core inflation printing around 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y), with goods inflation rising, while services prices reach levels closer to their historical average. If so, they see a higher probability of BCCh cutting on June 17. Meanwhile, BBVA expects a 0.2% m/m print for headline inflation, although they see risk skewed toward a miss on the high side. However, they see a better chance of a fall in annual ex-volatiles inflation, potentially tipping the balance in favour of a 25bp cut later this month.
- In other news, leftist presidential candidates signalled a willingness to raise some taxes to contain the fiscal deficit in a debate yesterday. The debate comes ahead of primary elections due later this month.
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