FOREX: Massive Increase In Q1 CHF Reserves Revised Away In Q2

Looking outside of the four major reserve currencies, the main conclusion from the IMF Q2 COFER data were the revisions to Q1. It highlights that the data on first release should always be taken with a pinch of salt. Note that the revisions to CHF and AUD holdings in particular were highlighted as likely by analysts following the Q1 release.

• In Q1, the data pointed to a massive 328% Q/Q increase in CHF holdings (after adjusting for FX changes). However, this has since been revised to just a 0.9% Q/Q increase. Note that in Q2, the IMF estimates a -17.3% Q/Q fall in CHF reserves (in local currency).
• Meanwhile, the -29.5% Q/Q change in AUD holdings was revised to just a 1.1% fall.
• There were also smaller, but still notable revisions to JPY and GBP Q1 Q/Q changes.
• Looking at the Q2 figures with those caveats aside, non-traditional currency proportions of total allocated reserves were fairly steady:
  • AUD at 2.1% vs 2.0% in Q1.
  • CAD at 2.6% vs 2.6% in Q1.
  • CHF at 1.6% vs 1.8% in Q1.
  • RMB at 2.1% vs 2.1% in Q1.
  • “Other” currencies’ allocation increased to 5.2% vs 4.9% in Q1.