FOREX: Markets Poised for Liberation Day

Apr-02 09:32
  • AUD and NZD are outperforming in early trade, with AUD/USD looking to test the 100-dma resistance at 0.6314 on any further strength. The USD is generally subdued, with markets clearly lacking directional conviction headed into today's tariff announcement.
  • Trump's Rose Garden appearance at the US cash equity close is the sole focus Wednesday, with markets looking for clarity on 'Liberation Day' and what this means for the global trade order. Options remaining on the table are speculated to be a blanket tariff of ~20% on most US imports, a country-by-country approach or a tiered system. Regardless of the approach the White House go for, tariffs are expected to come into effect immediately, leaving markets fraught with risk through the session.
  • Haven currencies are moderately softer - but the likes of CHF and JPY are still well ahead of support, meaning today's step lower in JPY, CHF may not be a direct indicator of risk-on. AUD/CHF has rallied Wednesday, but prices are meeting resistance at the formation of a downtrendline drawn off the early March highs.
  • US final durable goods orders, ADP Employment Change and appearances from ECB's Schnabel, Holzmann, Lane & Lagarde are due. 

Historical bullets

MNI: UK FINAL FEB MANUF PMI 46.9 (FLASH: 46.4); JAN 48.3

Mar-03 09:30
  • MNI: UK FINAL FEB MANUF PMI 46.9 (FLASH: 46.4); JAN 48.3

MNI: UK BOE JAN MORTGAGE APPROVALS 66,189

Mar-03 09:30
  • MNI: UK BOE JAN MORTGAGE APPROVALS 66,189
  • UK BOE JAN SECURED LENDING GBP4.21 BLN
  • UK BOE JAN CONSUMER CREDIT GBP1.74 BLN

MNI: UK JAN M4 MONEY SUPPLY +1.3% M/M, +4.1% Y/Y

Mar-03 09:30
  • MNI: UK JAN M4 MONEY SUPPLY +1.3% M/M, +4.1% Y/Y