POLAND: Market Sets Sights On October CPI Ahead Of NBP Rate Decision

Statistics Poland will release flash October CPI at 09:00GMT/10:00CET, a key piece of data ahead of next week's monetary policy decision from the NBP. Bloomberg consensus is for an uptick in headline inflation rate to +3.0% Y/Y from +2.9% registered in September, which aligns with the interim projection showed by Governor Adam Glapiński at his latest press conference. The central bank's target is +2.5% Y/Y with a +/-1pp tolerance band. As a reminder, the National Bank of Poland typically refrains from interest-rate action in December. As long as the central bank follows this convention, and the Governor signalled that it would, this effectively makes the November meeting the last opportunity to reduce rates further by the end of 2025.

• BGK pencil in +2.9% Y/Y for headline inflation. They expect a smaller negative contribution from fuel prices, which will be countered by a continuation of disinflationary trend in food prices. In their view, core inflation may tick lower to +3.1% Y/Y.
• Crédit Agricole expect inflation to moderate to +2.8% Y/Y on the back of a downtick in core inflation (to +3.0% Y/Y from +3.2%) but admit that their forecast is below market consensus and its materialisation would be negative for the zloty.
• ING expect an uptick to +3.0% Y/Y amid slower fuel deflation related to a low comparative base from last year. Higher heat prices may have added to upside price pressure after they were unfrozen in July 2025. On the other hand, food prices were likely relatively low, while core inflation may have stayed at +3.2% Y/Y.
• Pekao see headline inflation at +2.9% Y/Y and core inflation at +3.1% Y/Y. In their view, a surprise to the downside could stir the pot by triggering a fresh wave of bets on an interest-rate cut next week.
• PKO see inflation at +3.0% Y/Y but flag uncertainty related to the introduction of the deposit return scheme. They think that next week's rate decision hangs in the balance and a downside surprise today would increase the probability of a cut.
• Santander estimate that inflation may have picked up to +0.5% M/M in sequential terms, with annual price growth quickening to +3.1% Y/Y. In their view, the outturn will be determined by the extent to which October data captures the gradual increase in heat and hot water prices.