STIR: Market Moves Towards Fully Pricing 2 Fed Cuts Through Year-End After ADP

EUREX ROLL Pace as off Friday:

• Buxl: 18%.
• Bund: 17%.
• Bobl: 24%.
• Schatz: 16%.
• BTP: 10% (below pace).
• BTS: 16%.
• OAT: 18%.

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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change. 

Monday 1 September:

• European Union: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to hold talks with Romanian President Nicusor Dan and PM Ilie Bolojan following a visit to Lithuania for talks with President Gitanas Nauseda and a visit to the Belarusian border. The trip has garnered significant attention after the EU confirmed that von der Leyen’s plane had been subject to an interference attack, with GPS navigation services at a Bulgarian airport disabled as her plane was set to land on 30 August. Russia is suspected to have carried out the operation, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied this to the FT.
• United Kingdom: Parliament returns from its summer recess for a short session ahead of the party conference recess that starts on 16 September. Focus during this session remains on when Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announces a date for the budget, and speculation on what tax increases and/or spending cuts will be included.  

Irish HICP headline inflation rose by 0.2pp to 1.8% Y/Y in August, its highest rate since April. It came with monthly inflation of 0.3% M/M. HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food inflation (i.e. a proxy for core) also firmed two tenths to 1.9% Y/Y in August.

• Energy inflation of -0.1% Y/Y marked a slight increase from the -0.3% Y/Y in July. It came as energy prices fell -0.3% M/M, similar to expectations for August on a Eurozone-wide basis more broadly.
• Food meanwhile accelerated to a firm 5.0% Y/Y, up from 4.6% in July.
• "Transport costs have fallen by 0.5% in the month and decreased by 2.4% in the 12 months to August 2025", the statistics office adds.