US TSYS: Marginally Richer Start
Tsys have opened dealing marginally richer across the major benchmarks, cash tsys sit ~1bps richer. Ranges remain narrow and little macro news flow has crossed this morning. TYZ3 deals at 108-28+, 0-01+, a 0-02 range has been observed thus far.
- The RBA minutes of the Nov policy meeting cross at the bottom of the hour and headlines in Asia-Pac.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z3) Medium-Term Trend Direction Cemented Lower
- RES 3: 96.160 - High Jul 20
- RES 2: 96.050 - High Sep 4 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 95.924 - High Sep 15
- PRICE: 95.265 @ 16:16 BST Oct 20
- SUP 1: 95.175 - Low Oct 20
- SUP 2: 95.102 - Lower 3.0% Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 94.488 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
The Aussie 10yr futures broader trend direction is down, with prices returning lower still into the Thursday close. Key support and the bear trigger at 95.660/95.670, the Aug 17 low/Jun 17 2022 low has been breached, confirming the resumption of the medium-term downtrend. The focus is on 95.102, the 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band. Initial key resistance has been defined at 96.050, the Sep 4 high.
ITALY: S&P Affirm Italy at BBB, Outlook Stable
- *S&P: ITALY 'BBB/A-2' RATINGS AFFIRMED; OUTLOOK STABLE (BBG)
- The following commentary was attached to the report:
- "By 2025, S&P project that Italy's real GDP growth will recover to above 1%, helped by accelerated deployment of the Next Generation EU funds, which we believe will likely extend beyond 2026"
- "Economic growth will decelerate in 2023 and 2024 on the back of rising private sector savings, tightening credit conditions, slowing manufacturing, and weakening global trade: S&P"
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure Remains In Place
- RES 4: 1.3920 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
- RES 1: 1.3786 High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3701 @ 17:06 BST Oct 20
- SUP 1: 1.3569 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 1.3559 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
- SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support
The USDCAD trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. The pair remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 50-day average intersects at 1.3559 and marks a key short-term support. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 1.3786, the Oct 5 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.
