THAILAND: Manufacturing Contracts Sharply In July

Aug-28 05:30

July manufacturing production was very weak falling 4% y/y, the weakest since December 2023, after +0.4% y/y. Seasonally adjusted it fell 2.2% m/m. Capacity utilisation fell to 57.4 from 59.5 in June, also the lowest since end 2023.

Bank of Thailand’s business confidence fell in July but remained above May’s low. In contrast, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI has been above the breakeven-50 level for the last three months with July at 51.9 implying growth in activity. Both series receive August updates on September 1.
The industry ministry said that July’s weakness was driven by softer auto production as well as debt levels.
It has revised down its 2025 manufacturing forecast to 0-0.5% from 0-1% and expects it to continue to contract through H2.
Bank of Thailand has been concerned about a slowdown in growth in H2 driven by increased US protectionism and payback for the frontloading of Thai exports to the US in H1. Weaker tourist arrivals are also likely to weigh on growth. It has cut rates 100bp this cycle.

Thailand manufacturing

Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG/Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Remains Above Last Week’s Low

Jul-29 05:27

RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
RES 3: 107.273 50-day EMA
RES 2: 107.233 20-day EMA
RES 1: 107.205 Low Jul 18
PRICE: 107.140 @ 06:06 BST Jul 29
SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger
SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

Schatz futures traded sharply lower last week resulting in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from Friday’s low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.233. The 50-day EMA is at 107.273. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-29 05:23

Date	UK	Period	Event
29-Jul	0930	Jun	BOE Lending to Individuals / M4
01-Aug	0930	Jul	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
04-Aug	-	Aug	Bank of England Meeting
05-Aug	0930	Jul	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
05-Aug	0930	Jul	S&P Global/CIPS Final Composite PMI
06-Aug	0930	Jul	S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
07-Aug	1200	---	Bank Of England Interest Rate
07-Aug	1230	---	BOE Press Conference
07-Aug	1400	Jul	BOE Decision Maker Panel Data
08-Aug	1215	---	BOE Pill At National MPC Agency Briefing
12-Aug	0001	Jul	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
12-Aug	0700	Jul	Labour Market Survey
14-Aug	0700	Q2 / Jun	GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction
18-Aug	1530	---	DMO likely to publish FQ3 consultation agenda

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-29 05:18

Date	Time	Country	Event
29-Jul	0800	ES	GDP (p)
29-Jul	0900	EU	ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
30-Jul	0630	FR	GDP (p) / Consumer spending
30-Jul	0700	DE	Retail Sales
30-Jul	0800	ES	HICP (p)
30-Jul	0900	DE	GDP (p)
30-Jul	0900	IT	GDP (p)
30-Jul	0900	EU	ECB Wage Tracker
30-Jul	1000	EU	Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
31-Jul	0700	DE	Import/Export Prices
31-Jul	0745	FR	HICP (p) / PPI
31-Jul	0855	DE	Unemployment
31-Jul	0900	DE	State-level Inflation Data
31-Jul	1000	EU	Unemployment
31-Jul	1000	IT	HICP (p)
31-Jul	1100	IT	PPI
31-Jul	1300	DE	HICP (p)

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