EURUSD TECHS: Making Further Progress

Aug-07 17:00
  • RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
  • RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
  • RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
  • RES 1: 1.1699 High Aug 7
  • PRICE: 1.1643 @ 14:55 BST Aug 7
  • SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30 and a bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
  • SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
  • SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle  

Prices edged higher to a new recovery high Thursday, before fading into the close. Price has cleared the post-NFP high to keep the recovery off the late July pullback low intact. This works against the bearish backdrop that’s dominated the pullback from 1.1829. The break of firm resistance into 1.1607, the 20-day EMA, is signaling greater odds of a further reversal higher. Major support below rests at 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. 

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Holding Weaker, Narrow Range Ahead Tsy 3Y Sale

Jul-08 16:55
  • Treasuries remain weaker, off lows and trading sideways heading into the $58B 3Y note auction at the top of the hour, no reaction to myriad tariff related headlines from Pre Trump.
  • Currently, Sep'25 10Y trades -5.5 at 110-24 (110-21.5L / 111-01.5H), above initial technical support at 110-17 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
  • Curves bear steepen: 2s10s +2.288 at 50.563; 5s30s +0.781 at 96.342.
  • USD off highs, Bbg index BBDXY +2.33 at 1198.84 vs. 1199.72 high. Stocks holding mixed, Nasdaq outperforming (+32.0) vs. weaker DJIA (-111.0).

OPTIONS: Pickup In Bund Option Activity, As Mixed Rates Trades Continue

Jul-08 16:52

Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • OEQ5 117.25/117.50cs sold at 12 in 8k
  • RXQ5 128.50/127.50 put spread 3K given at 15.
  • RXQ5 130.5/131.5cs vs 128p, bought the cs for 3 in 2k.
  • ERZ5 98.3125/98.4375/98.5625c fly vs 97.9375p, bought the fly for flat in  3.5k.
  • ERZ5 98.00/97.9375ps, bought for 1.5 in 3k.
  • ERM6 98.375/98.25/97.9375p ladder, bought for flat up to half in 9k
  • SFIZ5 96.15p x2 vs 96.50c x1, sold the Call at -2.75 in 4k
  • SFIH6 96.80/97.00 call spread paper paid 3.75 on 5K

FED: US TSY 3Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $150 MLN FROM $58.000 BLN TOTAL

Jul-08 16:45
  • US TSY 3Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $150 MLN FROM $58.000 BLN TOTAL