GERMANY: Major Poll Sees CDU-SPD Or CDU-Green Coalitions Possible, AfD Second

The first 'multilevel regression and post-stratification poll' (MRP) from YouGov of the federal election campaign shows the main opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on course to emerge as the largest party, with 222 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag. If this poll is reflected in the final results, the CDU (and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union) would be able to form a two-party gov't with either Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) or Economy Minister Robert Habeck's environmentalist Greens.

• According to the poll of over 10k respondents, the right-wing/far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) will come in second place with 146 seats, its best-ever return in a federal election. As such, a CDU/CSU-AfD coalition would hold a substantial majority but CDU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has ruled out such a gov't.
• In the MRP the SPD records significant losses, down from 207 presently to 115 seats. The Greens see a small decline from 117 to 101 seats. Meanwhile, former finance minister Christian Lindner's pro-business liberal Free Democrats, with their vote share projection of 4.5% falling under the 5% threshold, would lose all 90 seats.
• The MRP also indicates a re-alignment on the left. The progressive leftist Die Linke would lose two of its three single-member constituencies. If a party falls below 5% it can still gain representation if it wins three constituencies, but the poll only shows it holding onto one. Instead, the economically left, socially conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would take 45 seats on 6% of the vote. 

Chart 1. Low, central and high seat estimates projected by MRP for the 2025 German election

Source: YouGov. Lower range vote share estimate for the BSW, FDP and Die Linke has them winning less than 5% of the vote, which disqualifies them from holding any seats under Germany's electoral system. The same is true for the FDP and Die Linke under central vote share estimate. 3 December 2024 - 15 January 2025, 10,411 respondents.