EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Majid Al Futtaim: FV $ 10Y Sukuk 500mnWNG
(MAFUAE; NR/BBB/BBB)
IPT: T+125bp
FV: T+85bp
- We sketch our FV considerations at z+130bp or T+85bp area.
- We look at the seasoned bond MAFUAE curve, where our screen feeds show the 29s, 30s and 33s clustered in the z+115-125bp area. We see 10bp spread pick up for the curve extension from the midpoint of that range (see chart below).
- Co. has a mix of properties management services. It develops, owns and manages across various segments with an international footprint. Malls average occupancy is reported at 97% whilst hotels average occupancy is at 75%.
- Co.’s reported H1 ’25 financials show growth path with international presence whilst profitability is still focused on UAE properties: Rev’s +3% y/y at USD4.7bn, net profit +23% y/y at USD300mn, EBITDA +9% y/y at USD600mn, FCF of USD300mn.
The debt profile shows plenty of room with H1 ’25 reported EBITDA interest cover at 7.9x (covenant >2.0x, S&P has FY25 estimate at 5.5-6.5 with projections for FY26 and FY27 at 6.5-7.5 range) and total net debt to total equity at 38% (covenant at <70%).
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3890 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 1.3839 @ 08:03 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 1.3790/27 50-day EMA / Low Aug 27 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
Despite last Thursday’s pullback, a bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. The recovery from the Aug 29 low highlights a reversal signal and if correct, marks the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 22 - 29. A continuation higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high. Support lies at 1.3727, the Aug 29 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a short-term bear theme and expose 1.3709 initially, a Fibonacci retracement.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6729 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6677 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6669 High Sep 12
- PRICE: 0.6659 @ 08:00 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 0.6558/6526 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat despite. Last week’s gains plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6526, the 50-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 91.18/91.28.
