EQUITIES: Macro Takeaways from Bank Earnings So Far:
Oct-14 11:43
Markets Businesses:
- Wells Fargo: Markets revs up 6% Y/Y driven by higher revenue in equities, commodities, FX and Credit, offsetting weaker rates revenues
- BlackRock: Top growth sectors included iShares ETF business, which saw record demand.
- JPMorgan: Markets revenue up 25% Y/Y, with fixed income up 21%, equities up 33%
- Goldman Sachs: FICC sales & trading higher-than-expected, equities trading revenues lower than expected. Significantly revs in interest rate products and higher revs in mortgages and commodities, partially offset by significantly lower revs in FX and lower revs in credit. Equities reflected significantly lower revs in cash products.
Mortgages & Lending:
- Wells Fargo: Average loans higher by 2% Y/Y, with higher commercial loans, credit cards and auto loans offsetting declines for commercial RE and residential mortgages. Home lending revenues up 3% Y/Y, and up 6% from Q2, personal lending revs down 7% Y/Y
- JPM: Average loans up 7% Y/Y Firmwide
Charge-offs:
- Wells Fargo: Commercial loan charge-offs up $3mln to 18bps of average loans (CRE charge-offs 32bps of average loans)
- JPM: Net charge-offs were $2.0 billion, up $44 million. Reserve build driven by loan growth in Card Services and updates to certain macroeconomic variables in Card Services and Home Lending, partially offset by reduced borrower uncertainty.
- Goldman Sachs: Net charge-offs of $304 million for an annualized net charge-off rate of 0.6% (0.1% for wholesale loans, 5.6% for consumer loans)
Macro:
- JPM: Some signs of softening [in the US economy], particularly in jobs growth, but remains resilient. Continues to be heightened degree of uncertainty stemming from geopolitics, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Bounces Further Off Support
Sep-12 21:45
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.550 @ 15:36 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 96.430/95.900 - Low Sep 3 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures are trading off recent lows. A resumption of gains from here would further narrow the gap with resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Any continuation lower would instead strengthen a bearish threat. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would open 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
FED: MNI Fed Preview-September 2025: A Reluctant Return To Easing
Sep-12 21:16
We've published our preview of the upcoming FOMC meeting - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is set to resume its easing cycle at the September 16-17 meeting with a 25bp cut to the funds rate range to 4.00-4.25%.
- The decision to cut after a 5-meeting pause was well-telegraphed by Chair Powell, whose Jackson Hole speech described a “shifting balance of risks” toward a weaker labor market that “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.
- The updated quarterly projections aren’t likely to bring many changes to the macroeconomic variables, but as usual the signal sent from the Fed rate “Dot Plot” will garner attention. A Committee split between expecting one or two further cuts this year is likely, keeping each of the remaining meetings of 2025 “live”.
- The Statement will downgrade the description of the labor market to reflect a rise in the unemployment rate and poor payrolls growth, and is likely to include at least one dissent to the rate decision.
- But with a Committee that is fairly divided on the way forward, Powell will be noncommittal on future action, reiterating that policy is not on a preset course, and upcoming decisions will be data-dependent.
- A key undercurrent is an increasingly activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House, which leaves the composition of the FOMC uncertain not just over the medium-term but also at this meeting.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Sep 15
RATINGS: Fitch: France Cut To A+ From AA, Portugal Up To A From A-
Sep-12 21:07
Fitch has downgraded France's sovereign rating to A+ (with stable outlook) from AA-. Release here.
- Among other factors in the decision, Fitch cites "High and Rising Debt Ratio", "Political Fragmentation Hinders Consolidation", "Weak Fiscal Record", "High 2025 Deficit", "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidation Path", and "Fiscal Rigidities".
- In "Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade", Fitch cites "Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP over the medium term, due to failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures and/or a persistent increase in financing costs" and "Macro: Materially lower economic growth prospects and weakened competitiveness." Conversely, potentially leading to positive ratings action would be "Public Finances: Confidence that government debt/GDP will be put on a downward trajectory over the medium term, for example, due to fiscal consolidation and/or stronger economic growth".
- Fitch also raised Portugal to A (stable outlook) from A-, while elsewhere, S&P raised Spain to A+ (stable outlook) from A.
- As MNI wrote earlier, we expected France to be downgraded to A+ and Portugal to be upgraded to A.
