EURGBP TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bear Mode Position

Mar-07 06:21
  • RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
  • RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
  • RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
  • RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key short-term resistance
  • PRICE: 0.8560 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 07
  • SUP 1: 0.8528 Low Feb 23
  • SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
  • SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
  • SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP is consolidating and price remains below key resistance at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. MA studies continue to highlight a downtrend, however, a break of 0.8578 would signal a possible reversal. The cross has pulled back from its recent highs, a deeper retracement would expose support and the bear trigger at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement.

Historical bullets

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Bullish Condition Remains Intact

Feb-06 06:21
  • RES 4: 4753.50 1.618 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 3: 4725.50 1.50 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 2: 4700.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 1: 4697.00 High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 4686.00 @ 06:04 GMT Feb 6
  • SUP 1: 4599.00/4586.80 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 4513.70 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
  • SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain firm and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Key resistance at the Dec 14 high of 4634.00 has recently been cleared. The break confirmed a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and sights are on the 4700.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 4586.80, the 20-day EMA. Key trend support has been defined at 4402.00, the Jan 17 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

Feb-06 06:18
Date Time Country Event
06-Feb 0700 DE Manufacturing Orders
06-Feb 0830 EU S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06-Feb 0900 IT ISTAT Business/Consumer Confidence
06-Feb 0900 EU ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
06-Feb 1000 EU Retail Sales
07-Feb 0700 DE Industrial Production
07-Feb 0745 FR Foreign Trade
07-Feb 0800 ES Industrial Production
07-Feb 0900 IT Retail Sales
08-Feb 1530 EU ECB's Lane at Brookings Institution
09-Feb 0700 DE HICP (f)
09-Feb 0900 IT Industrial Production
09-Feb 1415 EU ECB's Cipollone speaks at Assiom Forex Annual Congress
10-Feb 0900 EU The ECB Podcast on future euro banknotes
12-Feb 0945 EU ECB's Lane at conference on statistics post pandemic
12-Feb 1315 EU ECB's Lane participates in 'post-pandemic' roundtable
12-Feb 1550 EU ECB's Cipollone participates in panel on Euro@25

EURGBP TECHS: Bounce Considered Corrective

Feb-06 06:08
  • RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 0.8676 High Jan 3
  • RES 2: 0.8620 High Jan 20
  • RES 1: 0.8572/8601 High Feb 5 / 50-day EMA and key resistance
  • PRICE: 0.8566 @ 06:07 GMT Feb 6
  • SUP 1: 0.8513 Low Jan 29
  • SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
  • SUP 3: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
  • SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP bears remain in the driver’s seat despite Monday’s recovery - a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a clear bearish theme. The break in January of support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, strengthened current conditions and sights are on 0.8493, Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA - at 0.8599 - is the firm resistance to watch. A clear break of the average would concern bears.