GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- PRICE: $3344.8 @ 07:29 BST Jun 20
- SUP 1: $3338.8/3279.3 - Low Jun 12 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support
A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s pullback is considered corrective. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3279.3, the 50-day EMA.
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GOLD TECHS: Gains Highlight The End Of A Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3347.5 - High May 9
- PRICE: $3317.2 @ 07:28 BST May 21
- SUP 1: $3176.4/3121.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
- SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support
- SUP 4: $3023.1 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 6 price swing
Gold has recovered from its recent lows and is trading higher today. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation would open $3435 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
GBPUSD: GBPUSD breaches 1.3450 for first time since early 2022
- On the back of the stronger than expected UK CPI, GBPUSD has breached 1.3450 for the first time in over three years, breaching technical bull triggers.
- The next notable level is 1.3605, the 138.2% projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing.
- We would expect UK SONIA markets to price in an even lower probability of an August cut (was around 15bp priced at yesterday's close) with 41bp priced for the remainder of the year. Overall, we think this probably still looks appropriate pricing, but the SONIA market is prone to overshooting.
BRENT TECHS: (N5) Challenging Resistance
- RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $66.37/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $66.09 @ 07:12 BST May 21
- SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
Brent futures are trading closer to their recent highs and the contract maintains a S/T bullish theme. However, the medium-term trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on $66.37, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $68.28, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a reversal lower would open $58.00, Apr 9 low.
