GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3365.9 - High May 23
- PRICE: $3273.5 @ 07:25 BST May 29
- SUP 1: $3206.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
- SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support
Recent gains in Gold signal the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
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GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: $3386.6/3500.1 - High Apr 23 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $3314.2 @ 07:25 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: $3260.4 - Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: $3231.3 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 4: $3088.2 - 50-day EMA
Gold continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3231.3, the 20-day EMA.
BRENT TECHS: (N5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15
- RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $68.67 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $64.10 @ 07:11 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: $61.51/58.00 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
Brent futures have pulled back from their recent highs. For now, the latest recovery is considered corrective and has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of the bear cycle would open $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $61.51, the Apr 10 low. On the upside, the next important resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $68.67.
BUNDS: Italian supply, US Earnings and Labour Data are in focus
- There's very little change for the German Bund, and also multi cross assets (Equities, FX), Bund and US Tnotes have seen some of their lowest traded Volumes for their Overnight sessions in quite some time, a busy Week ahead on the Data front, US earnings, and also Month end.
- The German GFK was better than expected, but not a known market mover, Bund is bid on Cash led flows, but all in very small.
- Small resistance moves down to 131.63, but the Main upside target is unchanged at 132.03, while support is unchanged at 130.75.
- Today sees, Spain prelim CPI/GDP. ECB Inflation Expectations, US Prelim Wholesales, and JOLTS.
- SUPPLY: Italy €3.5bn 2030 (equates to 19k BTP or 73k 2yr short BTS), Italy €4bn 2035 (equates to 38.7k BTP) that's heavy Italian supply, will weigh, UK 2054 Linker (won't impact Gilt).
- SYNDICATION: Finland, and France.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Cipollone, Villeroy, BoE Ramsden.
