JGB TECHS: (M6) Returns Toward Recent Lows

• RES 3: 133.15 - High Feb 24 ‘26
• RES 2: 131.85 - 50-dma (cont)
• RES 1: 131.80 - 38.2% retracement of the Feb - Mar Bear Leg
• PRICE: 130.33 @ 16:09 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 129.82 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 2: 129.57 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 129.06 - 1.500 proj of the Aug 6 ‘24 - Mar 26 - Apr 7 ‘25

JGBs have rallied well alongside global bond markets, opening a sizeable gap with the pullback lows posted on Friday, and the show below the 130.00 handle. Price remains well through the 50-dma, however, to reinforce a negative outlook. Clearance back above this level is needed to highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for any recovery. Interim supports rest at 129.57 and below at 129.06.

The USD/JPY range overnight  was 159.29-159.86, Asia is currently trading around 159.40. The pair stalled toward 160 again and drifted lower as the USD came back under pressure on renewed hopes of a compromise. Though the move lower in the pair continues to lag as the market remains bearish on the Yen. On the day, the first support is toward 158.50-159.00 and the market will be eyeing a test above 160 again. The longer it stalls up here though without being able to clear the 160 area the risk of a pullback does increase, especially if the USD breaks lower.

• “The yen is failing to join a broad rally in high-beta currencies, remaining pinned near 160 against the dollar despite recent greenback weakness. Without a meaningful decline in oil prices to ease pressure on global long bonds, the Japanese currency is set to be disconnected from the broader G-10 recovery.” - BBG
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 158.40($1.22b April 16), 158.85($1.24b April 15), 160.00($1.17b April 15) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 69 Points
• Data/Event : Industrial Production, Japan to sell 20-year bonds

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5815 - 0.5873, Asia is currently trading around 0.5870. The NZD reversed higher bouncing strongly off 0.5800 as the market again rushed to sell USD’s on the hopes of a potential compromise and a second meeting being considered. A perceived hawkish RBNZ and a market pricing in multiple rate hikes now is adding to its tailwinds. On the day, the first support is back toward 0.5825-0.5850, and the market will be looking to challenge the pivotal 0.5900 area, like the AUD not something I thought we would be doing in this current environment.

• Zerohedge on X - “Door Is Not Closed': Mediators Still Press For Iran Deal After US Demanded 20-Year Halt To Nuclear Program.”  https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2043791362852573500?s=20
• "US and Iran Mull Second Meeting in Bid to Revive Ceasefire Talks. The US and Iran are in discussions about holding another round of face-to-face negotiations for a longer-term ceasefire, people familiar with the matter said, after talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance failed to produce a breakthrough." - BBG
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data:  0.5810(NZD605m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5650(NZD310m April 15), 0.5725(NZD349m April 15), 0.5750(NZD301m April 15) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 56 Points
• Data/Event: Net Migration

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P