US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Trendline Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-09+ 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-21+ 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: 112-08 High Apr 8
- PRICE: 111-02+ @ 11:18 BST Apr 10
- SUP 1: 110-01 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 109-30+ Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
- SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
Treasury futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows following this week’s move lower. Attention is on trendline support at 109-30+, drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that the steep sell-off could still be a corrective pullback that has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 112-08, the Aug 8 high. A break would highlight a possible early reversal.
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LOOK AHEAD: JOLTS, 3Y Auction
US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET.
- 11-Mar 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.6M, 7.600M), Rate (4.5%, 4.5%)
- 11-Mar 1000 JOLTS Quits Level (3.197M, 3.176M), Rate (2.0%, --)
- 11-Mar 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
- 11-Mar 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note Auction (91282CMS7)
STIR: Long Setting Seen Across Most Of SOFR Futures Strip On Monday
OI data suggests that long setting was most prominent during Monday’s uptick in SOFR futures, as questions surrounding U.S. economic exceptionalism continued to resonate.
- That left 3 of the front 4 packs subjected to net long setting on the day.
- The most meaningful break of the wider trend came via net short cover between SFRU6-H7.
| 10-Mar-25 | 07-Mar-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,079,491 | 1,076,238 | +3,253 | Whites | +41,395 |
SFRH5 | 1,315,571 | 1,310,786 | +4,785 | Reds | +11,307 |
SFRM5 | 1,146,920 | 1,112,770 | +34,150 | Greens | -20,187 |
SFRU5 | 892,588 | 893,381 | -793 | Blues | +7,764 |
SFRZ5 | 1,005,539 | 1,001,501 | +4,038 |
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SFRH6 | 654,910 | 650,208 | +4,702 |
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SFRM6 | 600,063 | 590,503 | +9,560 |
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SFRU6 | 589,394 | 596,387 | -6,993 |
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SFRZ6 | 753,128 | 777,171 | -24,043 |
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SFRH7 | 460,080 | 460,885 | -805 |
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SFRM7 | 461,290 | 456,795 | +4,495 |
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SFRU7 | 304,409 | 304,243 | +166 |
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SFRZ7 | 392,529 | 390,896 | +1,633 |
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SFRH8 | 214,786 | 212,449 | +2,337 |
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SFRM8 | 177,787 | 175,009 | +2,778 |
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SFRU8 | 124,585 | 123,569 | +1,016 |
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US DATA: Small Business Optimism Further Off Highs, Hawkish Price Details
- NFIB small business optimism eased again in February to 100.7 (cons 101.0) from 102.8 in Jan for a further retreat from the recent high of 105.1 in December.
- It’s come against a further increase in the uncertainty index to 104 for its second highest reading in the series history (highest being 110 in Oct ahead of the presidential election).
- That said, optimism is still elevated by recent standards, having averaged 91 through 2022-Oct 2024 and it’s still close to the 103 averaged in 2019 prior to the pandemic.
- The price components of the survey saw a hawkish tilt: the net share reporting price increases over past three months jumped from 22% to 32% (highest since May 2023) and the net share expecting to increase prices over the next three months rose from 26% to 29% (above 28% in Nov-Dec for highest since Mar 2024) - all seasonally adjusted figures.
- The latter is at a level that will continue to imply difficulty in fully returning to the 2% inflation target should historical relationships hold - see charts.
