US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 113-05+ 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 112-13 1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 2: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
- RES 1: 111-25 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 110-20 @ 10:09 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 110-12+/110-00 Low Mar 6 / High Feb 7
- SUP 2: 109-29 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
- SUP 4: 108-21 Low Feb 19
The trend structure in Treasury futures remains bullish. This is reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Recent gains have resulted in a print above 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projection points. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
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EGBS: Supply Weighing On Major Futures
Heavy sovereign supply has weighed on major EGB futures this morning, with syndications from Italy and the EU being held alongside conventional auctions from the Netherlands (earlier this morning) and Germany (1030GMT).
- A rally in oil prices and digestion of US President Trump’s steel/aluminium tariff announcements (and the latest EU retaliatory threats) will have also factored in.
- Bund futures are -44 ticks at 133.06, flirting with the 50-day EMA at 133.05. However, better support is seen at the Feb 4 low at 132.72, before the 20-dam EMA at 132.53.
- The German cash curve has bear steepened, with yields 3-4bps higher today.
- Little net change in 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds on the day.
- ECB Executive Board member Schnabel participates in a panel appearance this evening (1700GMT). With a light regional data calendar, tariff-related headline flow and Fed Chair Powell’s Senate testimony will be in focus.
GILTS: Lower On The Day, Outperform Bunds, Sizeable Syndi Demand Seen
Gilts hold lower on the day.
- Early pressure stemmed from the burden of heighted government bond supply, an uptick in oil and tariff risks.
- Weakness then extended on some hawkish caveats within BoE hawk-turned-dove Mann’s thinking (after her switch to voting for a 50bp cut last week).
- Books have since closed on the syndicated offering of the new 4.50% Mar-35 gilt, orderbooks topped GBP110bln at the latest count (expect a further update on this), with the spread set at the tight end of the initial guidance range.
- Futures as low as 93.13, before a recovery to 93.25.
- Initial support and resistance (92.50 & 94.35) remain untested, with the short-term bullish technical theme intact.
- Yields little changed to 2.5bp higher, ’25 closing highs in both 2s10s and 5s30s remain intact.
- 10-Year spread to Bunds ~2bp tighter at 207.5bp.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 63bp of cuts through year-end vs. 64bp early today.
- SONIA futures flat to -3.0.
- Comments from BoE Governor Bailey due later (12:15 London).
- Also watch for hedging pressure around the pricing of today’s syndication (timing still to be confirmed).
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Cut-Adjusted SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.401 | -5.3 |
May-25 | 4.197 | -25.7 |
Jun-25 | 4.112 | -34.2 |
Aug-25 | 3.962 | -49.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.923 | -53.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.848 | -60.6 |
Dec-25 | 3.826 | -62.8 |
EURIBOR OPTIONS: EURIBOR FIX - 11/02/25
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg
- EUR001W 2.6610 -0.0050
- EUR001M 2.6150 -0.0380
- EUR003M 2.5390 0.0130
- EUR006M 2.4810 0.0130
- EUR012M 2.3740 0.0020
