AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.370 @ 19:23 BST May 15
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures maintain a softer tone having faded off contract highs, and price remains below the 50-dma. The recent rally took out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, however momentum faltered, leaving 96.860 resistance intact. A continuation lower would strengthen a bearish theme. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Pharmaceuticals, Discretionary Stocks Lagging
- Stocks cling to marginally lower levels late Tuesday, no particular headline driver, just profit taking in late trade, markets wary of trade related headline risk. Consumer Discretionary, Health Care (pharmaceuticals) and Communication services sectors underperforming.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 85.47 points (-0.21%) at 40438.18, S&P E-Minis down 6 points (-0.11%) at 5435.75, Nasdaq down 15.4 points (-0.1%) at 16816.91.
- The Health Care sector underperformed in early trade after Pres Trump target pharmaceuticals for trade probes late Monday: Albemarle Corp -5.59%, Molina Healthcare -3.59%, Zimmer Biomet Holdings -4.01%, Moderna -3.81%. Elsewhere, Meta declined 2.11% while Alphabet -2.05%.
- A mix of banks, interactive media and tech stocks led gainers in the first half: Netflix gained 5.4% in late trade. Financial sector gainers included Bank of America +4.28%, Citigroup +3.46%, Huntington Bancshares +2.51% and Wells Fargo +2.73%.
- Tech stocks followed with Hewlett Packard Enterprise +4.9%, Palantir Technologies +5.57% and Crowdstrike Holdings +4.45%.
- Earnings expected late Tuesday include: Interactive Brokers, JB Hunt Transport, United Airlines and Omnicom Group. The following are expected to announce Wednesday: First Horizon Corp, Citizens Financial, Progressive Corp, US Bancorp, Prologis, Abbott Laboratories, Kinder Morgan, CSX Corp and Alcoa.
EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.55/164.19 High Apr 14 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.65 @ 16:06 GMT Apr 15
- SUP 1: 161.03/158.30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28
A recent pullback in EURJPY appears corrective and the strong rally from the Apr 7 low highlights the end of the correction. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a continuation higher would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Retail Sales, IP/Cap-U, 20Y Bond Re-Open
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 16-Apr 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (20.0%, --)
- 16-Apr 0830 Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.2%, 1.3%), Ex Auto (0.3%, 0.4%)
- 16-Apr 0830 Retail Sales Control Group ((1.0%, 0.6%)
- 16-Apr 0830 NY Fed Services Business Activity (-19.3, -12.4)
- 16-Apr 0915 Industrial Production MoM (0.7%, -0.2%)
- 16-Apr 0915 Capacity Utilization (78.2%, 77.9%)
- 16-Apr 0915 Mfg (SIC) Production (0.9%, 0.2%)
- 16-Apr 1000 Business Inventories (0.3%, 0.2%)
- 16-Apr 1000 NAHB Housing Market Index (39, 38)
- 16-Apr 1130 US Tsy 17W bill auction
- 16-Apr 1200 Cleveland Fed Hammack moderated Q&A w/ text
- 16-Apr 1300 US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond reopen (912810UJ5)
- 16-Apr 1330 Fed Chair Powell Economic Club of Chicago, outlook (text, Q&A)
- 16-Apr 1600 Net Long-term TIC Flows (-$45.2B, --)
- 16-Apr 1600 Total Net TIC Flows (-$48.8B, --)
- 19-Apr 1900 KC Fed Schmid & Dallas Fed Logan on economy (no text, Q&A)
