WTI TECHS: (M5) Trading Below Resistance
- RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $66.41/71.76 - High Apr 4 / 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $63.46/90 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $61.57 @ 07:17 BST May 16
- SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $63.46, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $66.41, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
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BUNDS: Tariffs drive the Risk Off Tone
- The German Bund saw a small gap higher on the open but didn't quite managed to break Yesterday's high at 131.57, after only managing a 131.35 Overnight.
- The German contract benefits from its Safer Haven status, but Desks have also positioned ahead of the ECB's expected cut on Growth Concerns, as Tariff Risks weigh on the Global Economies.
- The UK CPI was just a touch below Consensus and was only worth a 5 ticks gain in Bund, as Tariff news supersede, still Bund tested a session high post Cash Open.
- Trump is now restricting NVIDIA to sell its H20 chip to China, hence the Tech sector and wider Indices are under pressure going into the Europe session and will be watched on the EU Cash Open, NQM5 is down 2.0% vs 2.3% earlier.
- Trump has also launched a probe on the need for potential Tariffs on critical minerals.
- Today sees, EU, Italy final CPIs, US Retail Sales and IP, but the main Focus is on Fed Powell.
- SUPPLY: Germany 2025, 2030 (equates combined 20.3k Buxl) should weigh into the bidding deadline. There's a UK Tender but won't Impact Gilt.
- SYNDICATION: Italy dual Tranche.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Powell, Hammack.
WTI TECHS: (K5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: $74.66 - High Jan 22
- RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11
- RES 2: $67.09/72.28 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $64.85 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
- PRICE: $60.67 @ 07:14 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: $55.12 - Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: $54.26 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.81 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the rally on Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $54.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
BRENT TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $70.36/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5
- PRICE: $63.95 @ 07:09 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: $58.40 - Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures continue to trade above the Apr 9 low. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $70.36.
