US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Trades Through Trendline Support
Apr-11 13:48
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-00 Round number support
- RES 2: 112-08 High Apr 8
- RES 1: 111-20 High Apr 9
- PRICE: 109-24 @ 14:38 BST Apr 12
- SUP 1: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
- SUP 2: 108-26+ 76.4% of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 ‘24 and a key support
Treasury futures maintain a softer tone and the contract is again trading lower, today. Price has breached an important support - a trendline at 110-00 drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this line would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 109-13+, the Feb 24 low, and 108-26+ further out, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 111-20, the Apr 9 high.
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BOC: Instant Answers For Wed's BOC Rate Decision
Mar-12 13:45
Following are the Instant Answers for the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision:
- Overnight Rate Target (2.75%, down 25 bps)
- Does the Bank signal it’s prepared to cut rates in the future? Yes
- Does the Bank say it could opt for a rate cut greater than 25bps in the future? No
- Does the Bank say it judges that trend inflation remains close to 2%? No
- Does the Bank say a trade war is already damaging the economy? Yes
- Does the Bank say it must guard against the risk of faster inflation during a trade war? Yes
BOC CUTS RATE 25BP TO 2.75%, TO BE CAUTIOUS WITH FURTHER MOVES
Mar-12 13:45
- BOC CUTS RATE 25BP TO 2.75%, TO BE CAUTIOUS WITH FURTHER MOVES
- BOC SAYS U.S. TRADE WAR MEANS CANADA IS `FACING A NEW CRISIS'
- BOC: IMPERATIVE TO CONTROL MEDIUM, LONG-TERM CPI EXPECTATIONS
BOC: Delivers Expected 25 BPS Trade-War Cut, Signals Cautious Path Forward
Mar-12 13:45
- Bank of Canada cut interest rates for a seventh time in a row, by 25 bps to 2.75% in line with market expectations, amid concerns over U.S. trade war.
- "Looking ahead, the trade conflict with the United States can be expected to weigh on economic activity, while also increasing prices and inflation. Governing Council will proceed carefully with any further changes to our policy rate given the need to assess both the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs and the downward pressures from weaker demand, " Governor Macklem said.
- "Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs."
- BOC says inflation remains near its 2% target while core inflation is above 2% due to persistent shelter inflation.
- BOC says expectations for short-term inflation have increased amid U.S. tariff concerns.
- "We’re now facing a new crisis. Depending on the extent and duration of new US tariffs, the economic impact could be severe. The uncertainty alone is already causing harm," Macklem says.
- Special BOC survey on businesses and households published Wednesday suggests tariff threats and uncertainty from Canada-US trade relationship are already impacting businesses and consumer confidence.
- BOC says shift in business and consumer intentions could translate to a slowdown in Q1.
- BOC says expectations for medium and long-term CPI must be closely monitored to ensure any rise in inflation is temporary.
- "Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation."
- Next interest rate decision on April 16.
