US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 113-06 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 112-13 1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 2: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
- RES 1: 111-25 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 110-23+ @ 16:58 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 110-12+/110-00 Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7
- SUP 2: 109-30+ 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
- SUP 4: 108-21 Low Feb 19
The trend needle in Treasury futures continues to point north and the recent shallow pullback appears corrective. A bull theme is reinforced by MA studies that are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Recent gains have resulted in a print above 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear breach of this level would open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projections. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Sell-Off Results In A Breach Of Support
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 110-14 High Dec 14
- RES 1: 109-10/110-00 50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 108-07+ @ 16:52 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 108-00 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 107-06 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
Treasury futures traded sharply lower on Wednesday’s CPI print, resulting in a break of support at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. The breach of this support highlights a stronger reversal and most likely, the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 30Y/30Y-Ultra
Block crossed at 1144:20ET - both at respective post time offers. However, trading desks say the the 30Y Bond is sold vs. the Ultra, appr DV01 $372,000:
- 3,000 USH5 113-13 (-1-12)
- 2,000 WNH5 118-02 (-1-20)
SECURITY: Bessent Says US Stands w/Ukraine Ahead Of Key Week For Peace Process
Reuters reporting comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a meeting in Kyiv today.
- Amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s long-term commitment to Kyiv, Bessent said he, “would like to send a signal to the world the US stands with Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.” Adding that his first visit being to Ukraine, “shows the war is a top priority for the Trump administration.”
- Zelenskyy characterised the discussion as “productive and constructive” noting that he will study a natural resources agreement presented by Bessent ahead of Friday’s Munich Security Conference. Zelenskyy confirmed that resources in territories occupied by Russia were not discussed.
- An agreement between the US and Ukraine to provide US firms with rights to Ukrainian resources, including rare earths, is seen as facilitating continued US assistance, with Bessent noting a critical minerals deal is “part of a larger peace deal…”
- Trump wrote in a message on Truth Social ahead of the meeting: “The U.S. has spent BILLIONS of Dollars Globally, with little to show.”
- Trump’s national security advisor Mike Walz told NBC this week: “We need to recoup those costs and that is going to be a partnership with the Ukrainians in terms of their rare earths, their natural resources and their oil and gas, and also buying ours. Those conversations are going to happen this week.”
