US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 111-22+ High Dec 3 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 111-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 110-31 1.00 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 1: 110-29+ High Feb 26
- PRICE: 110-15+ @ 11:10 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 110-00 High Feb 7 and a recent breakout point
- SUP 2: 109-13 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 and a bear trigger
A bullish cycle in Treasury futures remains in play. The contract has pierced resistance at 110-20, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg.
A clear break of this level would broaden the bullish recovery and signal scope for a climb towards the 111-00 handle, ahead of 111-22+, the Dec 3 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to monitor is 109-13, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
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EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put spread
RXH5 131.50/130.50ps 1x2, bought the 1 for 1.5 in ~1.95k.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria dual-tranche: Final terms
New 10-year Feb-35 RAGB
- Spread set earlier at MS+48bps (guidance was MS+51bps area)
- Size: E5bln inc E250mln retained (MNI expected E4.5-5.0bln including E250-500mln retention)
- Books in excess of E35bln (inc E3.15bln JLM interest)
- Maturity: 20 February 2035
- Coupon: Long first
- ISIN: AT0000A3HU25
1.85% May-49 Green RAGB tap
- Spread set at MS+78bps (guidance was MS+80bps area)
- Size: E1.5bln inc E250mln retained (MNI expects E1.0-2.0bln)
- Books in excess of E15bln (inc E800mln JLM interest)
- ISIN: AT0000A2Y8G4
For both:
- JLMs: BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Raiffeisen Bank International
- Timing: Books closed, allocations and pricing later today.
From market source
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg.
- RES 2: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 109-12+ 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 108-29+ @ 10:35 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures is down, however a bullish short-term cycle highlights a corrective phase and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Attention is on 109-12+, the 50-day EMA - a level tested on Monday. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The bear trigger is 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.
