TTF NATGAS TECHS: (M5) Southbound
- RES 4: €47.44 - High Mar 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: €45.64 - High Mar 21 and key resistance
- RES 2: €39.26/43.33 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2
- RES 1: €35.48 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: €32.07 @ 12:31 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: €31.34 - Low Apr 29
- SUP 2: €30.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 3: €28.71 - 0.764 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 7 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: €23.49 - 1.000 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 7 - 21 price swing
A downtrend in TTF Gas futures remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle low this week. The recent breach of support at €32.75, the Apr 11 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this maintains the trend sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move down opens €28.71, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is €35.48, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at €39.26.
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GERMAN DATA: Rounded HICP a tenth below consensus; CPI in line with tracking est
- German HICP came in a tenth below consensus at 2.3%Y/Y (versus consensus of 2.4%Y/Y, prior 2.6%) with the M/M print at 0.4% (0.4% consensus although 0.5% was the modal expectation and analysts were split between 0.3-0.5%).
- The national CPI came in at 2.2%Y/Y (MNI tracking 2.2-2.3%, consensus 2.2%, prior 2.3%), M/M at 0.3% (in line with MNI tracking of 0.3-0.4% and consensus of 0.3%).
SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
Tesoro Publico has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the following Bono/Oblis at its auction this Thursday, April 3:
- the 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59)
- the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43)
- the 3.90% Jul-39 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L60)
Tesoro Publico has additionally announced it will be looking to sell E0.25-0.75bln of the 1.00% Nov-30 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000127C8) at that auction.
BUNDS: National CPI Due Imminently
Bund futures operate off session lows ahead of the German nation CPI reading, last 129.15.
- If the data comes in the soft side it is worth remembering that session highs in futures are located at 129.59, with the March 5 low in 10-Year yields located at 2.654% (today’s low is 2.659%).
- If we get an upside surprise in inflation then bears will look to close opening gaps in Bund futures (128.91) and 10-Year yields (2.727%).
