EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Sights Are On Key Resistance

The Norwegian Q1 2025 industrial confidence indicator was 4.0, slightly below last quarter’s 5.3 but still above the historical average of 2.9. Taken alongside improving trends in industrial production growth in Jan/Feb and a still-expansionary manufacturing PMI, this suggests industry should be a positive contributor to Q1 GDP. 

• Intermediate goods production was unchanged in Q1, while consumer and capital goods production increased. Employment increased across sectors, led by capital goods (largely a function of the supplier industry/oil and gas investments).
• New orders on the domestic and export market were unchanged on aggregate.
• Input and output price growth increased across sectors, but most strongly for consumer goods – which will feed most directly into goods CPI readings.
• Q1 capacity utilisation was 79%, marginally higher than in Q4 and just below the long term average of 80%.
• The general outlook for Q2 is positive, led by capital goods producers. 

• RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20  
• RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $75.47 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $69.85 - 50-day EMA            
• PRICE: $68.15 @ 07:02 BST Apr 23  
• SUP 1: $62.00/58.40 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support

Brent futures are holding on to their recent gains and continue to trade above the Apr 9 low. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the next important resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $69.85.

• CORRECT: UK MAR CGNCR GBP21.05 BN