GILT TECHS: (M5) Rally Extends

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2976.8 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2920.8/2956.2 - High Feb 27 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: $2894.2 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28  
• SUP 2: $2808.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
• SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27 

The latest pullback in Gold appears to be a correction. The move through the 20-day EMA does signal scope for an extension towards the next important support around the 50-day EMA, at $2808.08. However, Monday’s gains are a positive development and potentially an early reversal signal. A stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle.

• A busy and wide traded session for Bund, after Trump's Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China came into effect, but most was already priced in by the Markets, so the German contract trades well within Yesterday's wide range.
• Canada has announced a 25% tariff plan on some US Exported products, {ch} China delivered a more pinpoint set of Tariffs, targeting US Farmers with a 10%-15% on Agricultural products, although the lower response could suggest China's willingness to negotiate.
• The Volume in Bund is elevated for this Time of the day, but worth noting that 90% of that Volume is spread related, as Desks pick up the pace rolling March Positions into June.
• Support in Bund (March) is seen at 132.10 followed by 131.79. Resistance is at the 133.29 gap.
• There are no Tier 1 Data for the session, these pick up again Tomorrow.
• SUPPLY: UK £2.25bn 2054 (Equates to 33.6k Gilt) will weigh, German €4.5bn Bobl (equates to 42.8k Bobl) will weigh. and Netherland new 10-year 2.50% Jul-35 DSL.
• SYNDICATION: Belgium 15yr.
• SPEAKERS: Fed Williams.

RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12      

• RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7 
• RES 1: 120.74 High Feb 28      
• PRICE: 119.89 @ Close Mar 3 
• SUP 1: 119.60/118.95 Low Feb 24 / 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 118.65 Low Jan 24
• SUP 3: 117.16 Low Jan 13 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)   

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the pullback between Feb 7 - 19, appears to have been a correction. Monday’s move lower - for now - also appears corrective. Attention is on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88 further out, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the current bull cycle.