AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lower Levels
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.620 @ 16:20 BST Jun 05
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures rallied off lower levels on the RBA rate cut and guidance, however prices remain south of the 50-dma for now. The recent rally took out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, however momentum faltered, leaving 96.860 resistance intact. This remains the key level to the upside. Instead, a continuation lower would strengthen a bearish theme. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
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NEW ZEALAND: Whole Milk Auction Price Rises To Fresh Highs Since 2022
Overnight the average whole milk auction price rose to $4374, from $4171 at the previous auction (held mid April) (per the GDT website, see this link). This is fresh highs for this auction result going back to early 2022. The rise was close to 4.9% compared to the previous auction.
- All else equal this supports NZ's terms of trade backdrop. The orange line on the chart below is the NZD Citi terms of trade proxy, with the white line the average whole milk auction price.
Fig 1: Whole Milk Auction Price
Source: Citi/GDT/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
ASIA: Coming Up In Wednesday's Asia Pac Session
| 2345BST | 0645HKT | 0845AEST | New Zealand Q1 Jobs Report |
| 0130BST | 0830HKT | 1030AEST | Japan Apr F PMI Services |
| 0200BST | 0900HKT | 1100AEST | RBNZ News Conference On FinStab Report |
| 0200BST | 0900HKT | 1100AEST | Australia 2037 Bond Sale |
| 0210BST | 0910HKT | 1110AEST | BoJ Bond Purchases |
USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4066 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3914 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3781 @ 17:02 BST May 6
- SUP 1: 1.3760 Low May 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
Bearish conditions in USDCAD remain intact. A fresh cycle low last Friday reinforces the bearish theme signalling scope for a continuation, near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. On the upside, first resistance to watch is 1.3914, the 20-day EMA.
