AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lower Levels
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.500 @ 15:12 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures rallied off lower levels on the RBA rate cut and guidance, however prices remain south of the 50-dma for now. The recent rally took out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, however momentum faltered, leaving 96.860 resistance intact. A continuation lower would strengthen a bearish theme. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
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GOLD: Another Record High, Gold Surges Through $3400
Gold remained on the front foot through Monday trade, albeit in limited liquidity with EU markets still closed. We track near $3424 in early Tuesday dealings, just off session highs from Monday (3430.60), which was a fresh record high. Gold gained 2.92% for Monday's session with broad USD weakness, coupled with risk off in the US equity space driving gains.
- The RSI (14) on gold is in overbought conditions, last above 77, but we have been in this state on numerous occasions already in 2025, with the market comfortable buying gold dips. We have the 20-day EMA back under $3190. Lows from the end of last week were at $3284.
- Topside focus is likely to rest on round figure resistance at $3500. Note Goldman Sachs stated bullion could hit $4000 by mid next year (via BBG).
- US Tsy yields were sharply higher at the back end of the curve, the 10yr up 9bps to 4.41% in Monday trade. President Trump comments berated Fed Chairman Powell and reiterated a call for "preemptive cuts". This raised fears of Fed independence and added to the negative risk mood. The SPX fell 2.36%.
ASIA: Coming Up In Asian Markets On Tuesday
| 0900BST | 1600HKT | 1800AEST | Taiwan Mar Export Orders |
| 0900BST | 1600HKT | 1800AEST | Taiwan Mar Unemployment Rate |
| China Mar FX Net Settlement | |||
| Malaysia FX Reserves |
ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Tuesday
| 2345BST | 0645HKT | 0845AEST | New Zealand Mar Trade |
| 0335BST | 1035HKT | 1235AEST | New Zealand Bill sale |
