US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Pressuring 20-day EMA
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-00 Round number support
- RES 2: 112-08 High Apr 8
- RES 1: 111-00+/111-20 20-day EMA / High Apr 9
- PRICE: 110-31 @ 17:10 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 109-08 Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 ‘24 and a key support
The recovery for Treasury futures extended into a second session Tuesday, with prices pressuring the 20-day EMA on the upside. This levels market initial resistance and a close above could signal that start of a stronger correction higher. For now, the technical trend remains lower: price traded through an important support last week: a trendline at 110-03+, drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this trendline would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 108-26+, a Fibonacci retracement.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
