US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Inching Higher
- RES 4: 113-22 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-19+ 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 112-17 Intraday high
- PRICE: 112-16 @ 12:41 BST May 1
- SUP 1: 111-07+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 108-21 Low Feb 19
Treasury futures have traded higher again Thursday, extending the latest rally. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 111-25, 50.0% of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg. The breach undermines a recent bearish theme, strengthened by the show through 112-12, the 61.8% retracement. This opens 112-19+ vol band resistance. On the downside, a reversal and a resumption of weakness, would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low and the bear trigger. First key support to watch is 110-16+, the Apr 22 low.
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FOREX: USD Strength Pervades, EUR/USD Through Yesterday's Lows
USD strength pervades well into the NY crossover, helping pressure EUR/USD through yesterday's lows at 1.0784, aided lower by renewed weakness for stocks. The e-mini S&P is through the overnight low and has shed 35 points since the publication of the Washington Post piece pointing at the potential for 20% tariffs.
- JPY gains are outpacing the USD rally given the phase of risk-off, and spot weakness through Y149.00 here would open Y148.70 support and the lowest levels since March 21st.
- We noted yesterday the very healthy currency futures volumes for a Monday - it's more mixed Tuesday, with activity lighter than average for JPY futures, but more active in GBP and EUR markets.
FINLAND: PM Commits 3% Of GDP On Defence by '29, Withdraws From Landmine Treaty
PM Petteri Orpo has confirmed that Finland's defence spending will increase "to at least 3% of GDP", with Finance Minister Riikka Purra saying that the sum will be increased by 'around E3bln by 2029.' Orpo says that "Russia is and will remain a threat to the whole of Europe". Earlier, Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov claimed that President Vladimir Putin is open to normalising relations with Finland despite the "deplorable state of ties." Speaking in London on 31 March, President Alexander Stubb said that 'Finland must be mentally prepared for the fact that at some point relations with Russia will begin to open up.'
- Orpo says that Finland and Europe 'need to evaluate all measures to boost defence'. As part of the focus on 'all measures' Orpo confirms that Finland will join Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention, which bans all anti-personnel landmines.
- Finland is the NATO member that holds the longest land border with Russia. After Finland joined the alliance in 2023, NATO's total land border with Russia increased from 745 miles (1,215km) in length to 1,584 miles (2,555km).
- The Finnish gov't has accused Russia of waging 'hybrid warfare' on Finland, alleging that Moscow has funneled migrants to the Russo-Finnish border in large numbers in an effort to destabilise the Nordic country socially and politically.
- Withdrawing from the Ottawa convention, though, would indicate a more pressing concern in Helsinki that Russia could eventually launch a ground offensive against Finnish territory.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 10Y Sale
- -2,500 TYM5 111-23.5 (+16.5), sale through 111-24 post time bid at 0701:41ET, DV01 $158,000. The 10Y contract trades 111-24 last.
