BRENT TECHS: (M5) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024  
• RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
• RES 1: 1.3015 High MAr 20 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.2921 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 25 
• SUP 1: 1.2886 Low Mar 21     
• SUP 2: 1.2861 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2722 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support  
• SUP 4: 1.2556 Low Feb 28      

The GBPUSD trend needle continues to point north and the latest shallow pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2855, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2722.

Citing from Bild:

• "As part of tax cuts for small and medium incomes, the SPD wants to push through a significantly higher increase in the top tax rate and tax rate for the rich than demanded during the election campaign. According to [a report seen by Bild], a reduction in the income tax burden for small and medium-sized incomes should be accompanied by an increase in the top tax rate from the current 42% to 47%."
• "Previously, the SPD had held out the prospect of an increase to 45% during the election campaign. The so-called 'wealthy tax rate' is to be raised from 45% to 49%. During the election campaign, there was only talk of an increase to 47%. The SPD justifies the higher increase by stating that a reform of income tax should be “at least revenue-neutral”. The CDU/CSU, however, rejects the demanded increases."

As per the CDU/CSU rejection, we would speculate the chances of the higher tax rates being implemented are rather low - however, the demands might complicate the ongoing coalition negotiations.

• RES 4: 118.090 High Mar 5       
• RES 3: 117.850 Low Feb 20          
• RES 2: 117.645 50.0% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off     
• RES 1: 117.460 High Mar 21                                  
• PRICE: 117.350 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 25 
• SUP 1: 116.800 Low Mar 17       
• SUP 2: 116.470/250 Low Mar 12 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing    

Bobl futures are trading at their recent gains and remain in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. The recent trend condition was oversold and the move higher has allowed this set-up to unwind. The primary trend direction is down. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The recent sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.