SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle

Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, Finland and Italy are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E31.5bln, up from E16.1bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E2bln of the 6-month Oct 15, 2025 Bubill.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will issue E1.0-1.5bln of the 4-month Jul 30, 2025 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the new 6-month Sep 29, 2025 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will look to come to the market to sell up to a combined E7.8bln of 13/28/34/50-week BTFs: E2.7-3.1bln of the 13-week Jul 9, 2025 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the new 28-week Oct 22, 2025 BTF, E0.3-0.7bln of the 34-week Dec 3, 2025 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 50-week Mar 25, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Spain will issue 6-month Oct 10, 2025 letras and new 12-month Apr 10, 2026 letras. The size will be announced later today.
• Also tomorrow, Belgium will sell a combined E2.2-2.6bln of the 3/12-month TCs: an indicative E0.8bln of the Jul 10, 2025 TC and an indicative E1.6bln of the Apr 9, 2026 TC
• Next on tomorrow, Finland will look to sell a combined E2.0bln of the 7-month Nov 13, 2025 RFTB and the 10-month Feb 13, 2026 RFTB.
• To conclude the week, on Thursday Italy will sell a new 12-month BOT, potentially alongside a reopen of another BOT. Details will be announced later today. 

The Politburo is expected to ramp up policy support to boost domestic demand at its April meeting, in response to the larger-than-expected U.S. tariff hikes, according to Zhang Jun, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities. Zhang noted that several counter-cyclical policies have already been announced but not yet fully implemented, including childcare subsidies and urban village renovation initiatives. Additional measures could involve subsidies to stimulate service consumption, as well as increased efforts to purchase unsold homes and vacant land. (Source: Securities Daily)

China’s capital market is expected to remain resilient despite inevitable short-term fluctuations following the latest U.S. tariff hikes, analysts told Shanghai Securities News. China has ample policy room to boost domestic demand and the A-share consumption sector could follow an independent trajectory, especially as more counter-cyclical measures are anticipated in the second quarter, the paper reported. The sharp decline in U.S. stocks is partly due to the release of valuation risks that had built up over the past few years, while A-share valuations remain relatively low, the report added.