EQUITY TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 5906.75 High Mar 6
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and the reversal trigger
- RES 2: 5737.71 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5524.91 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5355.25 @ 14:54 BST Apr 11
- SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 2: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
A short-term reversal in S&P E-Minis on Wednesday highlights the start of what appears to be a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5524.91, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 5737.71. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4832.00, the Apr 7 low.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Has Entered Oversold Territory
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 5963.30 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5757.75/5880.10 High Mar 10 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4618.50 @ 13:47 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 5534.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5523.00 Low Sep 11 2024
- SUP 3: 5499.25 Low Sep 9 2024
- SUP 4: 5444.55 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Sights are set on the next important support at 5499.25, the Sep 9 2024 low. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5963.30, the 50-day EMA.
CANADA: Early FI Gains Reversed On BoC Statement
- CORZ5 is holding 5 of an initial 7-tick sell-off on the back of the BoC statement, reversing the steady rally seen in the forty five minutes ahead of the BoC announcement.
- 2Y GoC yields have climbed 3.5bps since the release vs-1bp for Tsys, which limits the day’s slide in the Can-US 2y yield differential to -3.5bp on the day at -145bps.
- There wasn’t much guidance expected after being dropped in the January statement, although a more two-sided line likely supports the reaction: “Governing Council will proceed carefully with any further changes to our policy rate given the need to assess both the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs and the downward pressures from weaker demand”.
