GILT TECHS: (M5) Clears Support

• RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28      
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5   
• RES 1: 116.98 High Mar 7       
• PRICE: 116.58 @ Close Mar 10 
• SUP 1: 115.83 Low Mar 6 
• SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing   

BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition following last week’s steep sell-off. The move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at last Wednesday’s 118.56 high.

• RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger         
• RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart  
• RES 1: 92.63 High Mar 7                     
• PRICE: 92.29 @ Close Mar 10
• SUP 1: 91.67/90.71 Low Mar 7 / 6                                     
• SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing  
• SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing 

Gilt futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is oversold, the latest bounce has allowed this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance is 92.63, the Mar 5 high.

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.21 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 149.33/150.10 High Mar 6 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 147.19 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 11 
• SUP 1: 146.54 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 146.02 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24 
• SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg 

The trend needle in USDJPY points south and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. Sights are on 145.92, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.