US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Extends
Apr-30 16:02
- RES 4: 113-22 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-16 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 112-12+ Intraday high
- PRICE: 112-09 @ 16:52 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 111-07+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 108-21 Low Feb 19
Treasury futures are trading higher this week as the contract extends the latest rally. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 111-25, 50.0% of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg. The breach undermines a recent bearish theme, strengthened by the brief show through 112-12, the 61.8% retracement. This opens 112-16. On the downside, a reversal and a resumption of weakness, would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low and the bear trigger. First key support to watch is 110-16+, the Apr 22 low.
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MNI: USDA: CORN STOCKS 8,151M BSL ON MAR 1
Mar-31 16:00
- USDA: CORN STOCKS 8,151M BSL ON MAR 1
- USDA: ALL WHEAT STOCKS 1,237M BSL ON MAR 1
- USDA: SOYBEAN STOCKS 1,910M BSL ON MAR 1
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speak, JOLTS, ISMs, Regional Fed Data
Mar-31 15:59
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 01-Apr 0900 Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook
- 01-Apr 0945 S&P Global US Mfg PMI (49.8, 49.9)
- 01-Apr 1000 Construction Spending MoM (-0.2%, 0.3%)
- 01-Apr 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.74M, 7.652M), Rate (4.6%, 4.6%)
- 01-Apr 1000 JOLTS Quits Level (3.266M, 3.186M), Rate (2.1%, --)
- 01-Apr 1000 ISM Manufacturing (50.3, 49.5)
- 01-Apr 1000 ISM Prices Paid (62.4, 64.6)
- 01-Apr 1000 ISM New Orders (48.6, --)
- 01-Apr 1000 ISM Employment (47.6, --)
- 01-Apr 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (4.6, --)
- 01-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill & $50B 14D CMB auctions
NORWAY: Union Wage Negotiations Look In Keeping With NB Forecasts
Mar-31 15:53
- Some colour for this month's 2025 union wage negotiations, which look in keeping with broader wage growth projections for the year and shouldn't move the needle too much in Norges Bank forecasts:
“*NORWAY UNIONS, EMPLOYERS REACH DEAL ON 4.4% WAGE RISE
*NORWAY LO UNION ORGANIZATION COMMENTS ON WAGE DEAL ON WEBSITE” - bbg
- The Norges Bank MPR from last week saw wage growth declining to 4.5% in 2025, raised 0.3pp from the December projection, after 5.6% in 2024.
- Separately, its Regional Network Survey from Mar 20 saw wage growth expectations for 2025 trimmed a touch from 4.5% to 4.4%, whilst its Expectations Survey showed social partners expecting 4.1%.
