US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 113-22 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-20+ High May 1 and key new-term resistance
- RES 1: 111-22112-01+ High May 7 / 2
- PRICE: 110-27 @ 11:09 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 110-22+ Low May 8
- SUP 2: 110-16+ Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 110-01+/00 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg / 100-dma
- SUP 4: 109-08 Low Apr 24
Treasury futures traded lower Thursday, marking an extension of the bear cycle that started at the beginning of May. Recent weakness undermines a bullish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 110-31+. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, the Apr 22 low. For bulls, price needs to trade above key S/T resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.
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AUD: Leading gains in G10s
- After printing a new 5yr low Overnight, the AUDUSD is still recovering, the Aussie is the early best performer within G10s against the Dollar, up 0.94%.
- Yesterday's high is situated at 0.6085, so far printed a 0.6029 high.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Trendline Support
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-09+ 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-21+ 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: 112-08 High Apr 7
- PRICE: 110-23 @ 11:01 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: 110-01 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 109-29 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
- SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
A sharp sell-off in Treasury futures this week has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on trendline support at 109-29, drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that the steep sell-off could still be a corrective pullback that has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 112-08, yesterday’s high. A break would highlight a possible early reversal.
US: SOFR FIX - 09/04/25
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.32092 0.02911
- 3M 4.22965 0.01943
- 6M 4.05294 0.01766
- 12M 3.80474 0.03121
