GILT TECHS: (M5) Approaching The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.00/93.01 20-day EMA / High Mar 20 and a S/T bull trigger
- PRICE: 91.02 @ Close Mar 25
- SUP 1: 90.93 Low Mar 25
- SUP 2: 90.71 Low Mar 6 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. This week’s move lower reinforces a bear theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 93.01, the Mar 20 high. A break of this level is required to highlight a bullish condition. For now, attention is on support at 90.71, the Mar 6 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BUNDS: A busy Overnight Session Following the German Election
- A busy overnight session for Bund, the contract saw a decent 30 ticks lower gap on the open, following a more positive German election results, prompting Desks to look for an increase spending out of Germany.
- Germany's Conservative Friedrich Merz is looking to quickly form a New Government.
- The German Bund drifts towards the 132.00 figure into the Cash open, it is now reversing Friday's poor set of Data out of the US, and continuation down to 131.73 would represent a full unwind of the French PMI miss.
- This is another light Week on the data front, the main focus will be on Friday, with CPIs and the US Core PCE.
- Today sees the German IFO and the final EU CPI.
- Early focus will be the completion of rolling Treasuries and Gilt March positions into June, and aside from the Data on Friday, Month End and the start of EUREX rolls will come into play.
- March Expiry for Bund is on the 6th March, Month End extensions are large for the US, Average for the EU and a non event for the UK.
- SUPPLY: Belgium 2029, 2034, 2038, EU €2.5bn 2027 (would equate to 36.1k Schatz) could weigh, EU €2.5bn 2039 (equates to 27k Bund) could also weigh.
- SPEAKERS: BoE Lombardelli, Ramsden, Dhingra.
EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Support
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 160.38 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 159.04 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 157.08 @ 07:19 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 155.82/155.61 Low Feb 21 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY last week, pulled back further from its recent high. Attention is on key short-term support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish break and set the scene for an extension towards 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is 159.04, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is unchanged at 160.38, the 50-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Support Stays Intact For Now
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- RES 1: 120.47 High Feb 13
- PRICE: 119.82 @ Close Feb 21
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. A stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle. First support lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low.
