US-EU: Lutnick: The EU Really Wants To Make A Deal

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Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack (non-2025 voter, hawk) is not eyeing "imminent" (ie July) rate cuts, seeing policy as "only modestly restrictive" (repeating her previous language) and with only "very modest cuts" required to get back to neutral. Some key quotes (speech link here):

• "When clarity is hard to come by, waiting for additional data will help inform the path ahead. It may well be the case that policy remains on hold for quite some time before the Committee initiates very modest cuts to return policy to a neutral setting...Given the resilience of the economy thus far, the risks from maintaining the current policy setting appear low, and I don’t see a weakening in the economy that would merit imminent rate cuts, though I remain attentive to that possibility."  
• "Looking ahead, if both sides of our mandate come under pressure, then holding the policy rate steady for some time may be the best choice to balance the risks coming from further elevated inflation and a slowing labor market." She says again, "I would rather be slow and move in the right direction than move quickly in the wrong one."
• She notes on recent market/geopolitical developments: "If long-term rates stay elevated, it means higher borrowing costs for households and firms. If the weakening in the dollar persists, it can add pressure on consumer prices on top of the direct effects of the tariffs. Rising oil prices could affect inflation and growth prospects."
• Indeed she links the latter to the broader risks of higher entrenched inflation and expectations from tariffs: "it is certainly possible that increases in tariffs could have only a short-lived effect. But coming after an extended period of elevated inflation, consumers and businesses may respond differently to this event than might otherwise have been the case. Additionally, recent increases in oil prices pose an upside risk to the stability of inflation expectations, given the typical relationship between increases in gasoline prices and inflation expectations in the United States".
• On inflation she sounds cautious despite recent progress, saying that "we have some distance to go before we sustainably reach our 2 percent inflation objective": "While the recent inflation data have been encouraging, they are backward-looking and may not capture very recent developments."
• Her speech compares the current stance of waiting for more data to the Bill Murray comedy Groundhog Day. Hammack says: "Unlike in an American rom-com, I see no neat and tidy way for monetary policy to make a 93-minute exit from its current holding pattern. Until we get to that moment, I appreciate that hearing me repeatedly say that we need to wait for more data must feel like your own version of Groundhog Day."

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also.

It was my Great Honor to make this happen!