OIL: Lukoil Accepts Offer from Gunvor for its International Assets

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 112-23/113-00 20-day EMA / High Sep 24 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-20 @ 11:15 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 112-01   50.0% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase   
• SUP 2: 111-26   Low Aug 26
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase  

A short-term bear cycle in Treasury futures remains in play. Last Thursday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-10+. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high.

OI data points to net short cover being most prominent through the green pack on the SOFR futures strip as contracts ticked higher on Monday (albeit with some pockets of net long setting seen), before net long setting came to the fore in the blues.

Following a summit with outgoing Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba in the southern city of Busan, the office of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said that the two leaders "reaffirmed their commitment to complete denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula". A spox added that the two agreed to cooperate as "partners", given they are neighbours "sharing a similar position in a turbulent global trade order." While the two leaders welcomed the return of 'shuttle diplomacy' (leaders from each country meeting in person on a regular basis), the upcoming change in Japan's leadership on 4 October (see 'JAPAN: Koizumi's Support Among LDP Lawmakers Cements Frontrunner Status', 10:14BST) could stem these efforts. 

• Relations between Japan and South Korea had improved markedly in recent years, culminating in the trilateral summit hosted by then-US President Joe Biden at Camp David in mid-2023. While Ishiba and Lee have developed a strong working relationship during their months in office, should Sanae Takaichi win the LDP leadership, it could presage a falling-out.
• The new LDP leader will require support from other parties to win a parliamentary vote to become PM. While frontrunner Shinjiro Koizumi has tacitly indicated that the libertarian federalist Japan Innovation Party are his most likely partners, Sanae Takaichi refused to rule out working with the right-wing populist Sanseito or the ultranationalist Conservative Party of Japan. Should either of these parties, which vehemently oppose immigration and have used anti-Korean language, back any LDP leader for PM, it could end the resumption of 'shuttle diplomacy'.