NZD: Lost Momentum Late In 2025 As Equity Upside Stalled, Local Mkt Out

NZD/USD tracks at 0.5760/65 in early Friday dealings, close to where the pair ended 2025. The pair lost some momentum as we approached year end, with the USD BBDXY index edging up from lows under 1200 (last around 1203.55). Broader technical trends in terms of USD downside don't appear to have shifted though. For NZD/USD we aren't too far away from recent lows, which have been marked in the 0.5735/40 region. A clean break lower could see the low 0.5700 region targeted. We are sub all key EMAs, with the 200-day back around 0.5825/30. Late Dec highs in the pair were marked at 0.5853. 

• Local NZ markets remain closed for the new year break. Japan and China markets also remain out. This could keep liquidity/market interest light today. NZ markets return on Monday. We get home value data for Dec on Monday Jan 5, but the data calendar doesn't really ramp up until the following week when filled jobs, building permits and ANZ commodity prices print (on Jan 14th).
• In the cross asset space, global equity sentiment ended 2025 slightly weaker, although still within striking distance of recent highs. NZ-US 2yr swap rate differentials ended around -0.58bps, also off earlier Dec highs and consistent with some NZD softness to end 2025.
• In the cross space, the AUD/NZD cross is around 1.1590 in early dealings today, just off recent highs above 1.1600. We remain in an uptrend on this pair. NZD/JPY was last 90.25/30 after getting close to 91.50 in late Dec, with some weakness coinciding with global equity downside.