ZAR: Looming Tariff Deadline, SARB Rate Decision In Focus

• The NTMA has announced it will hold one auction in the quarter on Thursday 11 September (with details to be announced on Monday 8 September).
• There is no statement here as to whether we will see further auctions in Q4 or not.

The far-right populist Sanseito ('Vote Party', DIY) has risen to a new high in the latest Kyodo News opinion poll, coming in joint-third place on the party list vote with 11% support. This excluded non-voters and undecided, who accounted for 45% of the total. If they were included, DIY's support would come in at 5.8%, above the 3.4% achieved in the 2024 general election. The ultranationalist, anti-immigration, anti-COVID restrictions party has recorded a boost in recent opinion polling after a strong performance in the 22 June Tokyo metropolitan election. 

• Kyodo News reports, "Amid growing discontent with economic malaise and record-breaking numbers of inbound tourists, Sanseito supporters complain that foreigners receive better treatment than Japanese and the country's culture is changing rapidly. A movement with roots in social media, supporters blend nationalism with a sense of crisis and frustration over their daily lives."
• The party advocates changing the Japanese Constitution to allow for the establishment of a permanent standing army, while also removing the presence of US forces on Japanese territory. It performs well with younger Japanese voters, capitalising on anger with cost-of-living issues.
• The party aims to win six of the 124 House of Councillors seats available in the upcoming election (it currently holds one).
• If the governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition loses its majority in the upper house, it would likely seek alliances with other centre-right parties rather than Sanseito. Nevertheless, rising support for an avowedly nationalist party could see the LDP look to ape its policies to win back support.