LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times GMT)

• RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing   
• RES 3: $2720.5 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2643.9 @ 07:19 BST Oct 15
• SUP 1: $2622.9/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8 
• SUP 2: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
• SUP 3: $2560.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2531.8 - High Aug 20 

The recent short-term retracement in Gold appears to have been a correction. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2690.2, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2622.9, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

Bund futures through yesterday’s high on the following news combination: 

• Late Monday comments from Fed’s Waller, who pointed to considerable room for cuts, albeit with a preference for a gradual pace.
• Weakness in crude oil markets after widespread reports that Israel told the U.S. that it would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure but would focus on military sites (trading off inflation readthrough).
• Contract +41 at 133.55, highs of 133.58 as the rally extends through the old open.
• Bearish technical threat intact in the contract, next resistance levels at the 50- & 20-day EMAs (133.84/134.00). Initial support at the Oct 10 low (132.75).
• Today’s data includes final CPIs from France & Spain, the ECB bank lending survey, German ZEW readings and European industrial production.
• Today’s supply includes Finland selling up to a combined EUR1.5bln of the on-the-run 6/10-year RFGBs, while we expect Luxembourg to complete a 10-Year syndication today (we pencil in EUR1.25bln transaction size).

• RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj  of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing 
• RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj  of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
• RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
• RES 1: 121.39/122.62 High Oct 4 / 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 120.54 @ Close Oct 14
• SUP 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11     
• SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle      
• SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26

The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. However, a short-term bearish threat exists for now, following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. This move down highlights a corrective cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced support at 120.17, the Sep 19 low and a key support. A clear break of this support would expose 119.58, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 122.62, the Oct 1 high.