SWEDEN: Long-term Inflation Expectations Still Well Anchored
Swedish 5-year ahead CPIF inflation expectations remain well anchored around the 2% target, according to Origo Group’s quarterly survey. This solidifies expectations for unchanged guidance at tomorrow’s Riksbank decision. Looking ahead, the Riksbank continues to monitor inflation expectations for signs of de-anchoring below 2%, with the temporary food VAT cut expected to pull spot inflation outcomes well below target from next year. The Executive Board likely hopes that the economic recovery will push against any downside risks to long-term inflation expectations.
- The quarterly survey gathers expectations for labour market parties and purchasing managers, alongside the usual money market participants.
- Relative to September, 5-year ahead CPIF expectations were steady at 2.1%, while 2-year ahead expectations eased a tenth to 2.0%. One-year ahead expectations fell to 1.6%, but this isn’t a surprise given the food VAT change.
- Growth expectations were revised up across 1-, 2- and 5-year horizons. 1-year ahead GDP is seen at 2.3% (vs 1.8% in September), while 2-year ahead GDP is expected at 2.3% (vs 2.2% prior).
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BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance Intact For Now
- RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $63.78 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
A sell-off in Brent futures last Wednesday highlights a bearish development. An extension lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play - for now. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.
UK FISCAL: Weekend news focuses on smaller taxes and opinion pieces
Most of the Budget news that we have seen over the weekend has been either focused away from big tax plans or opinion / explainer pieces which don't really include any new news.
- The Telegraph notes that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering plans to allow deferring of the new rumoured "mansion tax" until after death. It notes that "the Treasury is preparing to use the existing council tax system to revalue 2.4 million of the most valuable properties across bands F, G and H over the next few years – representing one in 10 English homes."
- The "sugar tax" is also being reported to be extended to milkshakes and lattés (at present milk-based drinks are exempt).
- Outside of this, the focus is on opinion pieces around the implications of not increasing income tax and freezing thresholds a further two years. And continued focus on the plans announced 10 days ago in The Times to limit the national insurance exemption from salary sacrifice for GBP2,000 (which would see big increases in employer NIC contributions, be a big reduction in incentives to save for a pension and particularly hit defined benefit pension schemes).
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Doji Reversal Candle
- RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
- RES 2: 6900.50 High Nov 12
- RES 1: 6804.35 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 6780.75 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 17
- SUP 1: 6670.50 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 6655.50 Low Nov 7 & key short-term support
- SUP 3: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
- SUP 4: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest selloff appears corrective - for now. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 6730.32, has been pierced, however, price is once again trading above the average. The next key support to watch is 6655.50, the Nov 7 low. Friday’s price pattern is a doji candle - a reversal signal. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6900.50, the Nov 12 high. A breach of this level would be bullish.
