UKRAINE: London Talks Downgraded; Trump Peace Plan Gives Russia Notable 'Wins'
Peace talks will take place today in London involving officials from the UK, US, Ukraine, France and Germany. The meeting had initially been intended as a summit of foreign ministers, but on 22 April the US State Dep't confirmed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would not be able to attend due to 'logistical reasons'. White House Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff is also skipping the talks. In their stead, Keith Kellogg, President Donald Trump’s envoy for Ukraine, will represent the US. Without Rubio, the meeting has been downgraded to a closed-door discussion among security officials.
- The lack of high-level representation from the US (Kellogg has been effectively sidelined from talks by Rubio and Witkoff) could be indicative of the US' disinterest in having European countries pushing for Ukraine's interests to be taken into account, as this could hold up progress of discussions.
- The 'final offer' of peace from President Trump can be seen to offer Russia a significant number of 'wins". Under the deal, Moscow would come away with full US recognition of Russia's claim on Crimea, de-facto recognition of the four Ukrainian oblasts taken since Feb 2022, removal of sanctions, a bar on Ukraine's NATO accession, and the prospect of increased economic ties with the US post-war.
- Ukraine, meanwhile, would gain a "robust security guarantee", and a small section of the Kharkiv oblast occupied by Russia. Indeed, Axios notes this, quoting a Ukrainian official stating, "The proposal says very clearly what tangible gains Russia gets, but only vaguely and generally says what Ukraine is going to get."
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SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24
- RES 1: $34.233 - High Mar 18
- PRICE: $33.126@ 08:03 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: $32.665 - Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: $32.189/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and a bear trigger
Silver has pulled back from its recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle remains in play. The metal has recently breached a key resistance at $33.397, the Feb 14 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19. This signals scope for a climb towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key trend support has been defined at $30.814, the Feb 28 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4332 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is unchanged and is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 is intact and MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A near-term key support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
BUNDS: Block trade
Large Bund block trade, suggest seller:
- RXM5 ~9.1k at 128.12.
