FED: Logan (’26 Voter) Repeats Difficulty In Supporting Dec Cut After NFPs

Nov-21 14:12

Dallas Fed’s Logan ('26 voter, hawk) has echoed her prior views. This from last week: "I think it would be hard to support another rate cut unless we were to get convincing evidence that inflation is really coming down faster than my expectations or that we were seeing more than the gradual cooling that we've been seeing in the labor market". Bloomberg headlines: 

  • *FED'S LOGAN: WOULD FIND IT DIFFICULT TO CUT AGAIN IN DECEMBER"
  • *LOGAN: HOLDING RATES WOULD ALLOW FED TO ASSESS RESTRICTION"
  • *LOGAN: EXPECT TO RESUME GROWTH OF FED BALANCE SHEET BEFORE LONG"
  • *LOGAN: FED NEEDS TO OFFSET TAILWINDS FROM FINANCIAL CONDITIONS" - all bbg

Unsurprisingly, it sees her maintain a contingent of incoming ’26 voters who don’t seem in a rush for further rate cuts, with Paulson the least hawkish of the three. From yesterday after the September payrolls release: 

  • Hammack (’26) said the jobs report is 'a bit stale' but is in line with expectations, looked a bit mixed and highlighted challenges faced by monetary policy.
  • Paulson (’26) said the higher u/e rate is still in the “neighborhood of full employment” and generally viewed the September data as encouraging. "Each rate cut raises the bar for the next cut. And that’s because each rate cut brings us closer to the level where policy flips from restraining activity a bit to the place where it is providing a boost. So, I am approaching the December FOMC cautiously.”

Historical bullets

SONIA OPTIONS: More upside structures for Today's session

Oct-22 13:56

SFIZ5 96.25/96.40/96.50 broken c fly, bought for 4 in 9k.

EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trading Above Support 

Oct-22 13:53
  • RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
  • RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
  • RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
  • RES 1: 6812.25 High Sep 9 and the bull trigger 
  • PRICE: 6772.50 @ 14:43 BST Oct 22
  • SUP 1: 6621.99 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support 
  • SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 
  • SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading above support at the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6627.92, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. Clearance of this level would undermine a bull theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high.

SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCKs/Screen: Mar'26 Put Trees, Spreads

Oct-22 13:36
  • 8,880 SFRH6 96.31/96.37/96.50 put trees, 2.25 net
  • Over 65,000 SFRH6 96.31/96.37 put spds, 1.5 total between pit/screen & Block