ISRAEL: Local Media Reports IDF Says Two Weeks More Bombing Of Iran
Mar-04 11:35
Israel's Channel 13 reports that "Senior IDF officers say today (Wednesday) that we have two more weeks of bombings across Iran ahead of us, with the plan being to attack thousands of targets with heavy bombers from the United States military - including all targets of the regime, the Revolutionary Guards, Basij, satellites, drones and tanks." Al Jazeera, reports Israel's Channel 12 stating the bombardment will last "at least" two weeks, rather than a set fortnight.
- Separately, Israel's Ynet reports that "In terms of the targets ahead, the IDF explains that there is a systematic plan to move to a set of military targets of the regime. These are thousands of targets. To do this, Americans are needed, and therefore, a systematic crushing of all regime targets and military targets, throughout Iran, is currently expected in the next two weeks."
- These are the first public comments attributed to the IDF with at least some form of timeframe for how long the bombardment of Iran could continue. Of course, this timeline is almost certain to shift around given the highly fluid nature of the geopolitical situation in the region. A key question is whether a two-week aerial offensive is a precursor to further action, or the extent of the attacks from Israel and the US.
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STIR: Close To Pricing Next Fed Cut In June, Mfg Surveys In Focus Today
Feb-02 11:32
- US rates have slightly extended Friday’s steady rally seen after President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed chair.
- Trump joked during a speech Saturday night that he would sue Warsh if he didn't lower interest rates.
- Fed Funds implied rates for 2026 meetings are mostly only 0.5bp lower from Friday’s close, close to but not fully pricing a next cut in June under the new Fed chair.
- FF cumulative cuts from 3.64% effective: 4.5bp Mar, 8.5bp Apr, 22.5bp Jun, 31bp Jul, 42bp Sep, 48bp Oct and 54bp Dec.
- SOFR futures are 1.5 ticks firmer through 2027 contracts, with the terminal implied yield another 1bp lower at 3.165% (SFRZ6) for a fresh low since mid-Jan.
- Today’s macro focus is likely on manufacturing business surveys, with the final January PMI at 0945ET before the ISM release at 1000ET.
- The Fedspeak schedule is light with only Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (retiring Feb) in a moderated discussion at 1230ET (no text)
CHF: Solid Turnaround for EURCHF as Momentum Sub 0.9200 in Focus
Feb-02 11:28
- Swiss Franc price action is catching the eye Monday, a notable underperformer across G10 as we approach the NY crossover. After reaching a new decade low of 0.9140 in APAC trade, EURCHF has had a solid turnaround, rising to a session high of 0.9212 in recent minutes.
- Broader cross-asset sentiment has most recently stabilised, potentially assisting the cross/CHF recovery, however, given the de-risking that has been on display elsewhere since Friday, short-term positioning dynamics may be assisting the squeeze.
- EURCHF lows today may also be approaching the threshold that could be considered alarming for the SNB. We highlighted last week that JPM stated we need to see EURCHF getting closer to 0.91 quickly for them to get worried, while ING said "the fact that EURCHF is offered near 0.92 and that USDCHF has broken under 0.7800 will be ringing alarm bells in Zurich”.
- As a reminder, President Schlegel spoke last week on the current economic situation and monetary policy, and notably there was no mention of the recent CHF strength.
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EGBS: UBH6 Sold
Feb-02 11:13
UBH6 5K blocked at 109.86, recent downtick suggests a seller, despite being conducted above the prevailing offer at time quoted by BBG. DV01 ~EUR1.06mln.
