ARGENTINA: LLA Can Replace Lead Candidate In Key Province, But No New Ballots
While President Javier Milei's libertarian La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advance, LLA) party has been allowed to replace under-fire lawmaker Jose Luis Espert at the top of the electoral list in Buenos Aires province, the stipulations around the elevation of Digo Santilli have caused some controversy. While the National Electoral Chamber overturned a previous court ruling that stated Santilli could not replace Espert, the electoral authorities have ruled it is too late to change the physical ballot papers, meaning a picture of Espert will be at the top of the LLA list in Argentina's most populous province come election day (26 Oct).
- Santilli, who unsuccessfully ran for the Chamber of Deputies on the Peronist ticket in 1999, before switching to the centre-right conservative Republican Proposal (PRO) of former President Mauricio Macri in the early 2000s, faces an uphill challenge in co-leading the LLA campaign in Buenos Aires. Milei's party suffered a significant setback in its comprehensive defeat to the Peronists in the September provincial elections.
- With only half of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate up for election, the LLA is running neck-and-neck with the left-wing Kirchnerist Peronist Fuerza Patria alliance, and will find it difficult to emerge from the election as the largest party in each chamber, let alone command a majority.
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NORGES BANK: MNI Norges Bank Preview - Sep 2025: Another Close Call
FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- At the start of the month, analyst and market expectations were fairly comfortably in favour of a 25bp Norges Bank cut on September 18th. However, domestic data released over the past two weeks have made the decision a much closer call.
- We currently lean against consensus in favour of a hold at 4.25% - a risk we thought markets were underappreciating even before the recent run of domestic data.
- If rates are held on Thursday, we expect soft guidance for a 25bp cut in December.
- Whatever the rate decision, the September MPR rate path is expected to be revised higher relative to June, pointing to a higher terminal rate landing zone than the 3.00-3.25% currently implied.
- Although market pricing still tilts in favour of a cut, price action over the past two weeks has clearly been in a hawkish direction. Recent moves, alongside the split analyst consensus, opens the door to a material knee-jerk reaction under any rate decision scenario on Thursday.
AUD: More FX Exchange traded upside Option
AUDUSD (7th Nov) 68.50c, bought for 0.25 in ~3.1k total (multiple clips).
GOLD: Last Tuesday's ATH Still Intact For Gold; Spot Up 0.35% Today
A fresh extension higher for gold prices has now faded, leaving spot up 0.35% on the session at $3,655/oz after peaking at $3,664 around 30 minutes ago.
- Initial resistance remains Tuesday’s all-time high of $3,674. Clearance of this level would expose round number resistance at $3,700.
- There hasn’t been an obvious headline driver for today’s modest gold rally. Instead, we suggest that positioning ahead of the Fed’s likely 25bp rate cut on Wednesday is factoring into price action, potentially alongside well-established Fed independence concerns following US President Trump’s latest calls for lower rates.
- A reminder that the US Senate will hold a cloture vote on Stephen Miran's Fed Board nomination at around 17:30 ET / 22:30 BST, with a full confirmation vote likely to take place at roughly 20:00 ET / 01:00 BST. Despite some reservations from institutionalist Senate Republicans, there is not expected to be any GOP opposition.
- Separately, we note that considerations around a physical gold trading tax in Thailand (due to domestic FX concerns) has not had a material impact on spot prices today.
